There’s a lot to keep an eye on in Sunday’s late window before anyone even takes the first snap.

The NFC West is at the center of it all. San Francisco's trying to hold onto control of the division, while the Rams and Seahawks are looking to stay close enough to make things interesting. Arizona gets a chance to play spoiler, and Las Vegas is about to get a pretty good look at their future against a defense that won’t exactly roll out the welcome mat.

Here’s what I’ll be watching.

Rams at Cardinals: Stafford’s Got Some Introductions to Make

4:05 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+

The Rams have won three straight since Arizona beat them 18–16 last month. The Cardinals didn’t score a touchdown in that game, either. Just six field goals and apparently enough motivation to get Los Angeles moving again.

Now Matthew Stafford has to keep it going without Puka Nacua or Davante Adams.

Nacua had seen 42.3% of Stafford’s targets over the last three games. That’s a massive chunk of the offense to replace. Stafford said Wednesday:

I trust those guys to be in the right spots.

We’re about to find out how quickly that trust turns into first downs.

Los Angeles ranks fourth in offensive success rate but only 22nd in explosive-play rate. The Rams have really been better at keeping drives alive than blowing games open. With the receiver room suddenly pretty thin, those routine completions matter even more.

The pace numbers suggest there should be some action here: Arizona averages 28.2 seconds between plays, while Los Angeles averages 28.4. Both teams are faster than the league average. But tempo doesn’t automatically mean points, especially with the Cardinals handing Carson Beck his first start after Gardner Minshew’s season-ending elbow injury.

Deciding matchup: Arizona’s protection against the Rams’ front. Beck gets Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald right away, potentially with a replacement center if Hjalte Froholdt can’t clear concussion protocol. His available receivers include Reggie Virgil, Simi Fehoko, and Devin Duvernay, who have eight catches combined. That’s a pretty brutal welcome to the NFL.

Trey McBride gives Beck a reliable target, but Arizona still needs someone else to make the Rams care. Los Angeles ranks 10th in explosive-play prevention, while the Cardinals rank 31st in creating them. If the Rams handle the short completions, Beck could spend a long afternoon trying to string together eight good decisions without making one bad one.

Seahawks at Raiders: Welcome to the Job, Fernando

4:05 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+

Klint Kubiak helped Seattle win a championship last season. This week, he gets to introduce his rookie quarterback to Mike Macdonald’s defense.

There are certainly some easier ways to catch up with an old coworker.

Fernando Mendoza's taking over after Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota. The Raiders are 4–5, so this isn’t just about giving the rookie some experience while chasing the first overall pick. There are actual stakes here. Kubiak knows how Seattle operates. Macdonald knows how Kubiak thinks. Mendoza has to figure out what’s happening between them in real time.

Seattle ranks fourth in defensive EPA per dropback and second in preventing explosive plays. The Seahawks generate pressure on 36.2% of dropbacks while sending five or more rushers on 27.4%. They can make the pocket uncomfortable without leaving the quarterback a bunch of easy throws underneath. That's exactly how they shut down the Chiefs.

Deciding matchup: the Raiders’ protection and Mendoza’s answers against Seattle’s pressure looks. Las Vegas has allowed pressure at the league’s lowest rate, but all of that work came with Cousins at quarterback. Knowing where the pressure is coming from matters just as much as blocking it.

Brock Bowers should be Mendoza’s best friend. He’s averaging 94 yards a game, and getting him involved early would give the rookie somewhere to go before a manageable down turns into a desperate one.

And “just run it” isn’t exactly a perfect solution. The Raiders rank 29th in rushing EPA, with Ashton Jeanty averaging 3.18 yards per carry. They need useful gains on early downs, not ceremonial handoffs that leave Mendoza staring at third-and-eight.

Seattle has their own issues. Drew Lock is expected to start again with Sam Darnold out, and he’s dealing with elbow and oblique injuries. The Seahawks rank 23rd in offensive EPA per play. Las Vegas, though, is last defensively and has lost three straight at home. That defense has to give their rookie quarterback a game he can actually manage.

49ers at Cowboys: Dallas Has to Stay in the Game First

4:25 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX One

This is the game that gets the biggest screen for me.

San Francisco's 7–1, Dallas sits at 4–5, and the 49ers have won the last four matchups between these two. The Cowboys need to show they can handle this matchup without spending the second half trying to dig out of a hole they created in the first place.

Dallas has a potent enough offense to make San Francisco uncomfortable. But Prescott needs to put together productive possessions early and keep the entire playbook available.

The running game is a big part of that. Dallas has averaged 159 rushing yards over their last three games, and San Francisco just held Las Vegas to 24. Javonte Williams can help the Cowboys control the afternoon, but asking him to erase a two-touchdown lead against this front is a completely different challenge.

Deciding matchup: Dallas’ linebackers and safeties against San Francisco’s motion and underneath weapons. The 49ers use motion on nearly three-quarters of their plays and rank first in EPA on those snaps. Dallas is dead last defending them.

Brian Schottenheimer put it plainly:

We’re gonna have to tackle really, really well in this game.

Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have a way of turning a routine completion into everybody’s problem.

There is an opening for Dallas, though. San Francisco corners Renardo Green and Deommodore Lenoir missed both Wednesday and Thursday’s practices. Their availability will be huge against CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens — if he's able to go.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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