A week ago, the NFC South looked like Carolina’s to lose. Kansas City was undefeated. Baltimore was hanging around the AFC North race without Lamar Jackson. And Philadelphia still had some semblance of hope for this season.

Then Week 7 happened.

The Panthers got run over, the Chiefs managed just three points, the Ravens gave up 35 unanswered, and the Eagles dropped their fifth straight. Suddenly, a lot of those early-season assumptions don’t look so safe.

Some teams have a chance to take control of their divisions. Others need to show last week was just a fluke. And for a few, there isn’t much runway left.

Thursday: Can Carolina’s Defense Get Off the Mat in Green Bay?

I was starting to buy into Carolina’s defense. Holding Detroit and Philadelphia to a combined 81 rushing yards over two games will do that. Then Tampa Bay ran for 258 on Sunday and beat the Panthers 43–13. Bryce Young threw two interceptions, took five sacks, and watched a strip-sack turn into a touchdown. That wasn’t just one unit having a bad day. The whole operation fell apart at once.

Now Carolina has three days to clean it up before heading to Lambeau Field. And they'll have to do it without right tackle Taylor Moton, who fractured his fibula against Tampa Bay and went on injured reserve Monday. Rookie Monroe Freeling, who started the first four games in Moton’s place, is back in there now. Carolina is 3–3 and still leads a crowded NFC South, but Thursday should tell us a lot about whether the Bucs exposed a real problem or just caught the Panthers on a bad day.

Green Bay has their own mess to sort out. The Packers lost 20–17 in Detroit despite getting the ball at the Lions’ 22 with the score tied late. They couldn’t finish the drive, and rookie kicker Trey Smack’s 35-yard attempt was tipped. His earlier 26-yard miss didn’t help either. The bigger issue was what happened in the red zone: Green Bay had four trips and came away with just seven points. Jordan Love and Tucker Kraft moved the ball well enough to win. But moving it isn’t the same as scoring, and the Packers left too many points sitting out there.

The obvious question is whether Green Bay can run against the defense Tampa Bay just gashed. I’m just as interested in the other side: can Young look like the confident quarterback we saw before Sunday while trying to stay upright behind another reshuffled offensive line?

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Baltimore at Buffalo Might Hinge on One Ankle

Put these records next to each other — Ravens 4–3, Bills 5–1 — and it’d be easy to assume Buffalo is the steadier team. I’m not sure it’s that simple. The Bills have won two straight and lead the league at 32.8 points per game, but both of those wins came by three points. Josh Allen played well against Las Vegas before the bye, completing 23 of 33 passes as Buffalo scored on seven of nine meaningful possessions. The defense, though, hasn’t been nearly as convincing.

Baltimore’s bigger question is obvious: who’s playing quarterback? Lamar Jackson's missed three games with an ankle injury. On Monday, coach Jesse Minter said Jackson was in a “decent spot” to play against Buffalo, but the team would know more Wednesday. That sounds encouraging, but it’s hardly a guarantee. Tyler Huntley started against Cincinnati and had the Ravens up 13–0 at halftime. Then the offense disappeared, and Joe Burrow threw four second-half touchdowns. Derrick Henry finished with 45 rushing yards, just 13 of them after halftime.

Getting Jackson back would change how Buffalo has to defend Henry. It wouldn’t fix Baltimore’s habit of starting fast and then losing their way. If Jackson sits, I’ll be watching to see whether the Ravens can keep the offense moving once the opening script runs out.

Buffalo, on the other hand, has a real chance to prove they can do more than simply outscore their mistakes.

Sunday 1 p.m. ET: Cleveland at Pittsburgh Is for Control of the AFC North

Yes, that’s Deshaun Watson’s 5–2 Browns visiting Aaron Rodgers’ 5–2 Steelers with first place on the line. Cleveland already beat Pittsburgh 27–24 in Week 4 on Andre Szmyt’s late field goal. Win again, and the Browns sweep the series in a division where every tiebreaker could matter. Pittsburgh can split the games and take the lead instead.

All five of Cleveland’s wins have come off a Watson-led game-winning drive. That sounds ridiculous, because it is. Against Tennessee, the Browns fell behind 14–0 before Quinshon Judkins ran for 96 yards and two touchdowns, Watson threw for 308 yards, and Szmyt delivered another winning kick. KC Concepcion keeps giving Watson a dangerous option downfield. I’m starting to believe more in the different ways this offense can win than in the idea that the late-game magic is going to last forever.

Pittsburgh beat New Orleans 16–10 in Paris. Jaylen Warren topped 100 rushing yards again and the Steelers did a good job controlling the clock. They also scored just one touchdown on seven drives. Rodgers said afterward that the offense still wasn’t playing as well as they could, and I don’t think that was just a quarterback looking for something to complain about.

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET: The Los Angeles Game Has Two Very Different Kinds of Pressure

The Chargers and Rams share a stadium. But right now, they barely look like they’re playing in the same league.

The Chargers are 0–6, the NFL’s last winless team. They had a bye to figure some things out, especially on an offense that comes into Week 8 last in expected points added per play — by a lot. Justin Herbert's thrown an interception in every game this year, eight in total, and the offensive line hasn’t done enough to keep the pressure off him. Jim Harbaugh said the team was looking at everything after the rough start, including the playbook and how much it’s asking players to carry into games. The defense has usually given the Chargers a chance. The offense keeps handing it right back.

The 3–4 Rams know a little something about disappointment too. They dropped back-to-back games to Denver and Arizona before beating the Raiders 35–21. The encouraging part wasn’t just Matthew Stafford’s three touchdown passes. It was the 199 rushing yards from a team that had averaged 84.5 over their last two games. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum both got going, giving Sean McVay an offense that didn’t need Stafford to fix every single down.

I want to see the Chargers come out of the bye looking like a team that actually changed something. For the Rams, this is a chance to show that last Sunday was the beginning of a workable offense, not just one good afternoon against Las Vegas. San Francisco is 6–1 and sitting on top of the NFC West. The Rams can’t afford to spend much longer trying to figure themselves out.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Can Denver Make the Chiefs Uncomfortable Again?

Kansas City was 5–0 before Seattle held Patrick Mahomes and company to three points and 213 yards. Kenneth Walker III, the league’s leading rusher coming in, managed just 36 yards on 14 carries. The Chiefs never even got the ball into the red zone. That had never happened in Mahomes' career before.

I’m not ready to call the offense broken after one ugly night against Mike Macdonald's defense, but let’s be honest — that wasn’t a normal loss.

Now Kansas City heads to Denver to face a 5–2 Broncos team that just pressured Jacoby Brissett on more than half of his dropbacks. Nik Bonitto had 13 pressures by himself against Arizona. Bo Nix also gave Denver’s offense a much-needed spark in the Broncos’ 30–16 win. The question is whether Denver can create that kind of offense against a better opponent. Before Sunday, the defense had been doing way too much of the heavy lifting.

Kansas City already beat Denver 31–10 in Week 1. A Broncos win would even the teams at 5–2 and turn the AFC West into a real fight. Another Kansas City victory would give them both head-to-head wins and a much stronger grip on the division.

I don’t expect Denver to copy Seattle’s game plan exactly. I do expect the Broncos’ pass rush to find out whether the Chiefs have answers once the easy yards aren’t there.

Sunday Night: Philadelphia and Washington Both Need a New Plan

The Eagles are 2–5 after Dallas beat them 38–21 on Monday night. Tanner McKee showed some good things and moved the offense at times, and Saquon Barkley looked dangerous whenever he touched the ball. The problem is, he only lasted nine snaps before leaving with a back injury. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks were out, and Jalen Hurts is out for the year with the blood clots. Those obviously played a part. They just don’t explain a defense that gave up 204 rushing yards and never really made Dak Prescott uncomfortable.

Washington's coming off their bye at 1–4–1 and has their own injury problems. Terry McLaurin tore his patellar tendon in Week 6 and is out for the season. Jayden Daniels threw for 300 yards in the loss to San Francisco, but finding dependable targets without McLaurin is now a season-long challenge.

The Eagles beat the Commanders 24–22 in Week 1, but that feels like a lifetime ago. New York now leads the NFC East at 4–2–1, and Dallas jumped Philadelphia in the standings on Monday. This rematch gives Washington a chance to climb back into a messy division race.

I’ll be watching Philadelphia’s defense first. With so much uncertainty on offense, they need to give McKee a game he can actually manage.

Monday Night: Is Seattle’s Defense That Good?

The Seahawks were headed in the wrong direction before Sunday. They’d lost two in a row, Sam Darnold was giving the ball away, and the offense was dealing with injuries and protection issues. Then Seattle held an undefeated Chiefs team to one field goal and made Jaxon Smith-Njigba the best player on the field. He finished with nine catches for 150 yards, giving him six 100-yard games this season. The defense deserves plenty of credit, but let’s not get carried away: Seattle's 4–3, not 7–0. There’s still a lot left to prove.

Chicago's a pretty good test. The 5–2 Bears have won twice since Caleb Williams came back from a hamstring injury. Against New England, he threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns. Luther Burden III got going early and Rome Odunze came up with some big catches later. The Bears can make plays through the air, and their offensive line and running game helped them take control in the fourth quarter. They’ll need all of that against Seattle.

Don’t Lose Track of the Rest

The Vikings-Lions game belongs near the top of any Sunday watch list. Minnesota’s the league’s last unbeaten team, even though they needed their defense to finish off a 16–10 win over Indianapolis. Detroit just beat Green Bay and now gets another NFC North opponent at home. A Lions win would tighten up the division right away.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay matters in the NFC South, too. The 3–4 Falcons just handed the 49ers their first loss, and the 2–5 Bucs looked nothing like their record when they ran through Carolina. Cincinnati can strengthen their spot in the AFC North against 1–6 Tennessee, but the Titans have played better over the past two weeks than that record suggests. Jacksonville, coming off their bye, can push Indianapolis even further back in the AFC South.

If I had to circle one question for the whole week, it’d be whether the Chiefs can answer what Seattle did to them. Denver has the defense to make them work for it.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.