Final Sprint to the White House Goes Through Pennsylvania

The final countdown is on. Americans will head to the polls on Tuesday, November 5 to cast their vote for president as well as a number of important down ballot choices and initiatives. Here is a look at what is grabbing the headlines with just one day to go.

Where the Candidates Are Spending the Last Day of Campaigning

Where a candidate spends the last day of the campaign is a reliable signal about what their internal polling is telling them is the most important state to secure for the Electoral College. Vice President Kamala Harris is spending the entirety of the day in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania.

The vice president kicked off the day with a canvassing event in Scranton, the home town of current President Joe Biden. She will also appear at an afternoon rally in Allentown with performances by rapper Fat Joe and singer Frankie Negron. The performance by the Puerto Rican Negron is an attempt to win over some of the Puerto Rican voters that Trump may have alienated in the past few days.

Harris will make a quick stop in Reading before heading to another rally in Pittsburgh alongside Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff. Musician Katy Perry is slated to perform at this event. She will wrap up the night with a blockbuster event in Philadelphia with special guests Oprah and Lady Gaga.

On the other side of the ticket, former President Donald Trump is leapfrogging across three battleground states on Monday. Trump began the day with a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina before hitting the road for a stop in Reading, Pennsylvania. Like Harris, he will also hold a rally in Pittsburgh during the early evening hours. The former president will wrap up the long day with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

The vice presidential candidates will be doing their part on Monday to drum up support and drive people to the polls. Trump's GOP running mate, Ohio. Sen. JD Vance, will appear at events in La Crosse, Wisconsin; Flint, Michigan; and Atlanta before rounding out the day with a rally in Newtown, Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, Harris' Democratic running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, started the day with a meet-and-greet in his home state. Walz then traveled to La Crosse, Wisconsin to get out the vote before making the short trip to Stevens Point, Wisconsin for an event with Sen. Tammy Baldwin. The governor will then host a rally in Milwaukee before finishing the day with an event in Detroit.

Final Polling Results

All eyes have been on the various polls over the last few weeks. The last pre-election poll out of NPR/PBS News/Marist was released on Monday, showing Harris with a slight lead over Trump among likely voters. Harris led the national poll by 51% to 47%, within the margin of error.

A surprising poll out of the Des Moines Register and Mediacom is raising concern within the Trump campaign. The poll found that the former president was behind Harris by 3 points with likely voters. These results are particularly notable as Trump easily carried the Hawkeye State in both 2016 and 2020.

Early Voting Numbers

Although Election Day is not until Tuesday, most states allow early voting to help to streamline the process and encourage more participation. According to the latest numbers provided by Edison Research, over 77 million ballots have been cast across 47 states and the District of Columbia.

This number is down from 2020 levels when over 110 million ballots were cast during the early voting period or by mail. The 2020 figure ended up being about 70% of the total votes cast in that election. However, it is important to note that more voters were prompted to vote by mail due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Registered Republicans have made up a greater share of the pre-election vote when compared 2020. While the Trump campaign did not vocally support mail-in voting in 2020, party officials encouraged its electorate to vote early and through the mail this year.

Of the 27 states studied thus far this year, registered Democrats have made up about 37% of the pre-election ballots compared to Republicans coming in at 35%.

Diving into the gender gap for early voting, about 1.8 million more females than males have already voted in the seven battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. This is a significant gap but it is still smaller than it was four years ago.

What to Know About the House of Representatives and the Senate

The race to the White House is not the only important election up for grabs. Members of the House of Representatives must run every two years, meaning all 435 seats are on the ballot this year.

According to the latest analysis, Democrats are favored in 208 of these races with Republicans the presumed leaders in 212 of the contests. Only 15 races are considered to be tossups.

The GOP enjoyed a slim majority in the House this past session. However, it is possible that the Democrats could emerge on Wednesday with a small majority. It is much more challenging for the controlling party in the White House to pass legislation through Congress if they also do not control the House.

Only a third of the Senate seats come up for election every two years. There are 34 seats that will be decided this election cycle with the Democrats currently with a slim majority heading into Tuesday.

The Democrats are defending 20 of these seats with it possible that voters in West Virginia and Montana will turn the seats to the GOP. A competitive race in Ohio could also cost the Democrats a senate seat. On the flip side, the Democratic Party is hopeful that they may turn either Texas or Florida to their column.

Regardless of how the toss-up seats shake out in the Senate, neither the Democrats or Republicans are predicted to have a supermajority this year.

What States to Watch

Much has been said about the battleground states in this election. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to secure their spot in the Oval Office. The majority of U.S. states vote reliably for one party, leaving just a few states in play every election cycle.

There are seven widely recognized battleground states this cycle with the candidates spending the majority of their time and financial resources working to win these voters.

The Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania continue to be highly contentious. Trump shocked the political landscape when he swept all three of these states on his way to the White House in 2016 while Biden won them back in 2020.

A clean sweep by Harris in 2024 would likely make her the first female American president. With polls suggesting razor thin races in all three of these states, the voter turnout will decide who takes home the spoils.

It is also interesting to note that these three states typically vote the same way. You have to go back to 1988 to find a time when they split their votes.

In addition to the three Rust Belt states, the Sun Belt has also been a hotbed of campaign activity this year. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia are all tight races. All but Nevada used to be primarily Republican.

The last time a Democrat won North Carolina was back in 2008 when Barack Obama took home the state. Biden was able to secure a victory in 2020 in Georgia as well as a key win in Arizona.

Of the seven battleground states, Pennsylvania is considered to be the biggest win with 19 electoral votes up for grabs. Michigan offers 15 votes with fellow Rust Belt state Wisconsin coming in with 10. Over in the Sun Belt, Nevada has six votes, Arizona has 11, and both Georgia and North Carolina boast 16 electoral votes to the winner of their state.

Political experts are warning Americans that it could take days for the final votes to come in and a winner to be declared. Keep in mind that it was not until Saturday morning that Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 presidential election. In other words, hang tight because it could be a long few days.

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