Americans Stock Up on Food Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Americans are taking a proactive approach to stocking food supplies with pantry-stable items as uncertainty grows regarding future costs of food following President Trump's recent tariff announcements.

Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, then announced a 90-day truce on retaliatory tariffs for over 70 countries while increasing China's tariffs from 104% to 125%. With others, he established tariffs to an across-the-board 10% level.

Consumer Shopping Habits Change

Shoppers began stockpiling groceries prior to Trump's announcement stopping the global tariffs, a new analysis by consumer insights company Consumer Edge found.

The report found increased purchases of shelf-stable foods and overall larger transaction sizes over the last weekend.

Consumer Edge Insight Center head of insights Michael Gunther stated consumers are acting aggressively regarding anticipated price increases as seen through last weekend's increased spending per visit.

Specific Product Trends

Consumer Edge's analysis found steep increases in certain types of products from April 3-4 to March 28-29:

·         Canned and jarred foods: 29% increase

·         Instant coffee: 21% increase

·         Ketchup: 18% increase

·         Beer: 3% increase

These figures were tracked from Consumer Edge's Basketview and Transact databases, which track consumer purchases and credit/debit card transactions.

Larger Shopping Baskets

Along with purchasing greater quantities of shelf-stable merchandise, consumers also are buying more per shopping expedition. Consumer Edge reported sharp spikes in transactional values at chain retailers like Walmart, Target, dollar stores, and a string of drugstores.

Between April 1-4, Walmart and Target consumers bought roughly 1.4 to 1.41 items per transaction on average, down from about 1.39 items from March 25-28. Although this appears to be a slight difference, Gunther said it is a possible turning point in consumer spending.

Products Most Vulnerable to Price Increases

Consumer concern for shelf-stable products is understandable because perishables might soon be subject to price increases and reduced availability as a result of the new tariffs.

Fresh fruits and vegetables coming from Central and South American countries are likely to be affected also. Bananas may experience price impacts because they're predominantly imported from Guatemala, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Honduras – all of which are countries with Trump's tariffs.

Imported goods from Canada and Mexico would be the least affected, an American consumer win since 69% of fresh vegetables and 51% of fresh fruit are imported into the U.S. by Mexico.

Coffee would see its pricing go through a transformation as approximately 80% of U.S.-roasted imported coffee comes from Latin America, and Brazil and Colombia contribute over 60% of the total.

Both nations have been targeted for Trump's mutual tariffs of 10%.

For spirits, whose sales were up last week, U.S. beer imports come primarily from Mexico and Canada. Wine imports come primarily from European Union countries (France, Italy, and Spain), which face 20% reciprocal tariffs, and New Zealand and Australia, facing 10% tariffs.

Consumers Preparing for an Uncertain Future

As the tariff situation continues to develop, American consumers are exhibiting economic savvy by adjusting their shopping habits in anticipation of potential price increases. This advance planning—stocking up on staples like canned vegetables, coffee, and other shelf-stable goods—illustrates a practical understanding of global trade's direct impact on household budgets.

While the 90-day reprieve may provide temporary relief to certain products, the continued high tariffs on Chinese goods and the 10% across-the-board rate on many other countries mean grocery economics remain in disarray. In the meantime, many consumers appear to be following a simple strategy: buy a little more now to avoid paying a lot more later.