Will It Snow on Christmas Day This Year?
The glow of holiday lights feels just a little more magical when paired with fresh-fallen snow, doesn’t it? As December 25 approaches, the big question is: will this year deliver that snowy backdrop we all dream about?
Whether you're planning a cozy holiday at home, navigating busy travel schedules, or just hoping for that snowy Instagram-perfect moment, knowing what’s coming could make all the difference.
Once a staple of the holiday season in northern states, a white Christmas has become more elusive over the years. As winters grow increasingly unpredictable, the question of snow on Christmas has taken on new significance.
What Defines a White Christmas?
A “white Christmas” doesn’t demand much—just an inch of snow on the ground by the morning of December 25th.
But what feels like a simple wish isn’t always simple to achieve. For instance, Minneapolis has a 70% historical likelihood of snow on December 25, while Dallas sits at less than 10%. Historically, areas like the Northeast and Midwest in the U.S. have enjoyed better odds, while snowflakes are more of a rarity in southern states. Yet, with global weather trends shifting, the chances for holiday snowfall are becoming less predictable.
What’s Shaping 2024’s Christmas Weather?
This year, forecasters are keeping a close eye on several key factors:
La Niña’s Influence:
Thanks to La Niña, areas like Chicago and Buffalo might get colder, snowier holidays, while places in the South are more likely to see rain.Temperature Trends:
Early reports from meteorologists suggest December 2024 may start warmer than average for most of the country, with colder snaps expected later in the month. This creates a tricky setup where precipitation may fall—but not necessarily as snow.Regional Climate Patterns:
Areas near large bodies of water, like Buffalo and Cleveland, could see lake-effect snow events, while coastal cities like Boston and New York are more likely to experience rain if temperatures remain just above freezing.
Who’s Most Likely to See Snow This Christmas?
When it comes to dreaming of a white Christmas, geography is everything. Different regions of the U.S. have wildly varying odds of waking up to snow on December 25, and 2024 brings both familiar patterns and a few surprises. Here’s what the data says for this year:
Northeast
If you’re in the Northeast, your odds of a snowy holiday are usually strong. Cities like Burlington, Vermont, hold a 60% historical chance of snow on Christmas, and Syracuse frequently tops the charts with a 70% probability.
But this year, warmer-than-average temperatures in December may dampen those odds. Coastal cities like Boston and Providence could see rain or dry conditions rather than snow.
However, inland regions—Buffalo, Rochester, and Albany—are better positioned, particularly if lake-effect snow events develop. Buffalo, which historically has a 57% chance of snow on Christmas, may still hold onto its reputation for festive snow cover.
Midwest
The Midwest is often seen as the heartland of Christmas snowfall. Cities like Minneapolis-St. Paul historically boast a 75% likelihood of a white Christmas, and Green Bay, Wisconsin, isn’t far behind at 73%.
In 2024, the forecast points to colder-than-average conditions late in December, increasing the chances for snow in northern states. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula remains a near-lock for a white Christmas, with probabilities exceeding 80%. However, regions farther south, such as Chicago (40%) and Indianapolis (25%), could face rain instead of snow if temperatures don’t dip low enough during precipitation.
Western U.S.
In the West, mountain towns like Aspen and Jackson Hole are all but guaranteed a white Christmas, with odds exceeding 90%. These higher elevations benefit from consistent snowfall throughout the season.
Lower elevation areas, however, face a more uncertain outlook. Denver, for example, has a 40% historical probability of snow on December 25 but could see reduced chances this year due to warmer early-season trends. Similarly, Salt Lake City, which averages a 60% chance of snow, may see its odds drop slightly in 2024 due to warmer Pacific air influencing the region.
South
In the South, snow on Christmas is more fantasy than forecast. Cities like Dallas and Atlanta have less than a 5% historical chance of snow on December 25, and 2024’s weather trends suggest a mild and wet holiday season for most of the region.
That said, surprises aren’t out of the question. In 2010, Atlanta experienced its first measurable Christmas snowfall since the 1880s. While such an event is unlikely this year, higher elevations in the Appalachians or parts of northern Texas could see a dusting if a cold front moves in at just the right time.
Pacific Northwest
Seattle and Portland are among the least likely U.S. cities to see snow on Christmas, with historical probabilities hovering around 5-10%. For 2024, warmer-than-average conditions are likely to bring rain instead of snow to most areas west of the Cascades.
In contrast, mountainous areas like Mount Hood, Bend, and Stevens Pass remain near guarantees for snow, offering skiers and holiday travelers a classic winter wonderland.
Why Is Snow on Christmas Becoming Less Likely?
Studies show that as global temperatures rise, white Christmases are becoming less frequent. In fact, some regions known for snowy holidays have seen a 20% drop in December snow days over the past 50 years. By 2050, even cities like Chicago may see their odds significantly reduced.
This isn’t just about numbers—it’s about memories, traditions, and the deep-seated longing for a quintessential winter holiday.
What Experts Are Saying
Meteorologists highlight the importance of precision in today’s forecasts, particularly with advancements in technology. Short-term predictions have improved thanks to tools like AI modeling, yet long-term projections remain trickier due to unpredictable climate shifts.
Experts also recommend keeping an eye on forecasts in the weeks leading up to Christmas, especially as short-term models tend to be more reliable for snowfall predictions.
Preparing for the Holidays in 2024
No matter the forecast, planning ahead is key.
Travel: Check road and flight conditions frequently, especially if you're heading to areas prone to snow or ice.
Stay Flexible: Whether it’s a change in travel plans or outdoor celebrations moving inside, flexibility ensures a smoother holiday experience.
Embrace Alternatives: In snow-free areas, focus on creating cozy, festive atmospheres indoors with lights, décor, and holiday activities.
Bottom Line
As we move closer to December 25, forecasts will continue to sharpen, offering more clarity on who might wake up to a blanket of snow.
Whether you wake up to a snowy morning or not, the true spirit of Christmas comes from the moments shared with loved ones. Still, we’ll be here to keep you informed—because who doesn’t love a little snow to complete the holiday magic?