Hunter Tierney Dec 21, 2024 17 min read

Playoff Dreams and Draft Positioning: Week 16 NFL Preview

Nov 17, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) meet at mid-field after playing at Acrisure Stadium.
Nov 17, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) and Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) meet at mid-field after playing at Acrisure Stadium. | Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Week 16 in the NFL brings high stakes across the board. For some teams, their playoff hopes could end here, while others have a shot to take that all-important step closer to the postseason. From pivotal divisional matchups to individual milestones, there’s no shortage of drama on the docket.

Take the Broncos’ loss on Thursday night, for example — that game alone kept things alive for several playoff hopefuls. Meanwhile, Saturday’s slate brings fireworks of its own, with the Steelers looking to clinch the AFC North against the rival Ravens, and the Texans battling the league-best Chiefs in a showdown of MVP candidates.

Add in stories like Patrick Mahomes playing through an injury and Saquon Barkley chasing the rushing title, and it’s clear this weekend offers something for every fan.

With games stretched from Saturday through Monday and college football playoffs adding to the mix, it’s a dream weekend for football fans.

Saturday Games

Jan 16, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is sacked by Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt (90) in an AFC Wild Card playoff football game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Jan 16, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is sacked by Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt (90) in an AFC Wild Card playoff football game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Texans (9-5) at Chiefs (13-1)

Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST, NBC

The Texans visit Arrowhead Stadium to take on the red-hot Chiefs in a game loaded with storylines. Kansas City is eyeing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while Houston, fresh off clinching the AFC South, looks to prove they can hang with the league's best.

Patrick Mahomes is dealing with a mild high-ankle sprain, but all signs point to him suiting up. The Texans’ offense, however, has been inconsistent, and breaking out of their slump won’t be easy against a Chiefs team that’s been lights out in close games.

Key Matchup: The trenches. Both teams feature capable pass rushes but have struggled along the offensive line. Whichever team wins the battle up front will likely control the game. The Chiefs’ front, led by Chris Jones, could wreak havoc if Houston’s line doesn’t hold up.

Prediction: The Chiefs grind out another close win, extending their incredible streak in one-score games to 16. Expect this one to stay low-scoring, with both defenses playing a key role.

Steelers (10-4) at Ravens (9-5)

Kickoff: 4:30 PM EST, FOX

One of the league’s fiercest rivalries is back, and this time it could decide the AFC North. The Steelers are riding high after eight wins in their last nine meetings with Baltimore, but the Ravens will look to flip the script in front of their home crowd. 

With the division title on the line, both teams have everything to play for. A Pittsburgh win would seal the division, while a Baltimore victory keeps their chances at the division alive.

The Steelers’ defense, led by T.J. Watt, who'll be playing on a bum ankle this weekend, has been a nightmare for opponents all season. In their Week 11 clash, they held the Ravens to their lowest offensive output of the year. 

On the other side, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ high-powered offense will aim to rebound after struggling against Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes last time out.

Key Matchup: Lamar Jackson vs. the Steelers’ defense. In their previous meeting, Jackson threw for 207 yards with a touchdown and an interception, finishing with a passer rating of 66. For Baltimore to win, Jackson will need to show why he's an NVP candidate and find ways to get the ball to his playmakers down the field.

Prediction: The Ravens bounce back and split the season series. With home-field advantage and their offense firing on all cylinders, they're going to be too much for Russell Wilson and that Steelers' offense to handle.

Sunday Early Games

Dec 16, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) warms up before a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.
Dec 16, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) warms up before a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. | Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Giants (2-12) at Falcons (7-7)

Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Falcons are making headlines this week with a bold decision: benching veteran Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. With their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, Atlanta is turning to its potential quarterback of the future to spark the offense. 

On the other side, the Giants are riding a nine-game losing streak and are staring down the possibility of a franchise-record 10th straight loss. While New York has little to play for outside of pride, Atlanta's fighting to stay alive in the NFC playoff race.

The Falcons' rushing attack, led by standout rookie Bijan Robinson, will likely carry much of the offensive burden to ease the transition for Penix. The Giants' defense, plagued by injuries, faces the tall task of containing Robinson while adjusting to a new quarterback they didn’t initially game-plan for. Whether the Giants can disrupt Penix early or whether Atlanta finds rhythm quickly will likely decide the tone of the game.

Key Matchup: Falcons’ run game vs. Giants’ front seven. Atlanta has leaned heavily on Robinson and Allgeier all season, and they'll need them at their best against a Giants defense that has been up and down in stopping the run.

Prediction: Falcons dominate. The combination of a dynamic run game and the spark provided by Penix’s debut will be too much for the struggling Giants to handle. Atlanta keeps their playoff hopes alive with a decisive win while the Giants inch closer to the number-one overall pick.

Cardinals (7-7) at Panthers (3-11)

Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Cardinals head to Bank of America Stadium with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread, currently sitting at a 13% chance according to NextGen Stats. For Arizona, every game is a must-win, and this matchup against a struggling Panthers team presents an opportunity to stay in the hunt. 

Carolina, meanwhile, is playing for pride and evaluating their young core. Bryce Young, who's shown improvement since his early-season benching, leads a roster that's struggled to find consistency due to a clear lack of talent.

Arizona’s offense, led by Kyler Murray, faces a Panthers defense looking to capitalize on injuries to key Cardinals players. Offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. and running back Trey Benson are questionable, which could impact Arizona’s ability to move the ball effectively. Carolina will look to disrupt Murray’s rhythm and force the Cardinals into mistakes, which has been an Achilles heel for them all year. 

Key Matchup: Kyler Murray vs. the Panthers’ secondary. The Cardinals’ success is directly tied to Murray’s performance, and they’ll need him at his best if they hope to make any noise in the playoffs. Carolina’s secondary could provide an opportunity to get back on track.

Prediction: The Cardinals keep their playoff dreams alive with a win. Despite Bryce Young putting together another solid performance, Arizona’s experience and urgency prove too much for Carolina.

Lions (12-2) at Bears (4-10)

Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Lions head to Soldier Field atop the NFC standings, and are hoping to stay there. Detroit, tied with the Eagles and division-rival Vikings at 12-2, has plenty at stake as the season comes to a close. 

Despite a slew of injuries, including the absence of David Montgomery, the Lions are heavy favorites against a Bears team that fired its head coach earlier this season and continues to rebuild. For Chicago, this game is about finding small victories, like the continued development of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.

Detroit’s defense, however, has been hit hard by injuries, raising questions about their depth and ability to shut down even struggling offenses like Chicago’s. 

Key Matchup: Caleb Williams vs. the Lions’ injury-depleted defense. Williams has had a rocky rookie season, but this matchup provides a chance for him to gain confidence and produce against a defense missing key starters.

Prediction: Lions win comfortably. Even with their injuries, Detroit’s overall talent and experience will be too much for Chicago. However, if the Bears move the ball effectively, it could expose lingering issues in the Lions’ defense heading into the postseason.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) makes a pass against Detroit Lions during the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) makes a pass against Detroit Lions during the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. on Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024. | Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Titans (3-11) at Colts (6-8)

Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST, CBS

The Colts are hanging on to slim playoff hopes as they prepare to host the struggling Titans. 

Tennessee’s season hasn’t gone as planned, as their early optimism for quarterback Will Levis faded quickly. Both teams have clear objectives: the Colts to stay alive, and the Titans to evaluate talent and look ahead to 2025.

Indianapolis will lean heavily on its running game, anchored by Jonathan Taylor. Taylor has been the heart of their offense all season, and he’ll be counted on to produce against Tennessee’s stout defensive front. 

For the Titans, the focus will be on slowing Taylor and forcing Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson into high-pressure situations. Richardson’s season has been a rollercoaster, showcasing flashes of brilliance alongside moments of inconsistency.

Key Matchup: Jonathan Taylor vs. the Titans’ defense. The Colts’ success hinges on Taylor’s ability to move the chains, especially with Richardson’s uneven play. The Titans’ defense is their strongest unit, and how they respond to the challenge will define this game.

Prediction: Colts stay in the playoff hunt with a hard-fought win. Expect a big performance from Taylor and a couple of highlight-reel plays from Richardson to seal the deal for Indianapolis.

Rams (8-6) at Jets (4-10)

Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST, CBS

After a season filled with ups and downs, a win this week would keep Los Angeles in control of its destiny for a potential NFC West title. A mix of injuries and poor play by the defense had the Rams in rough shape earlier in the season. Able to turn things around, they're currently riding a three-game winning streak, taking down the red-hot Bills in the process.

On the other hand, the Jets are playing the spoiler role while evaluating their roster for the future. Despite their record, New York’s mid-season acquisition of Davante Adams has added a spark to their offense, while the ongoing turmoil in the organization’s front office looms in the background.

Key Matchup: Rams’ weapons vs. Jets’ secondary. The Jets’ defensive backs have done well this year, but the challenge of containing both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua is a tall order. If the Rams’ receivers find space, it could be a long day for New York.

Prediction: Rams win comfortably. The noise surrounding the Jets organization appears to be taking a toll, and Sean McVay’s team understands the importance of controlling its playoff fate. Expect Rodgers and Adams to have moments of success against the Rams’ defense, but Los Angeles’ offensive talent and urgency will carry them to a win.

Eagles (12-2) at Commanders (9-5)

Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST, FOX

The Eagles come into this NFC East battle riding a 10-game winning streak and the chance to lock up the division title. Jalen Hurts continues to shine, leading a balanced offense that can beat teams on the ground or through the air. 

The Commanders, however, aren’t just rolling over—this game represents an opportunity to boost their own playoff credentials and put a halt to Philadelphia’s dominance.

For the Commanders, the focus will be on sustaining drives and keeping Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense off the field. Washington’s ability to control the clock with running back Brian Robinson Jr. will be the key to their success. If they can establish the run game and limit Philadelphia’s possessions, they’ll give themselves a chance to stay in the game and potentially pull off the upset.

Key Matchup: Saquon Barkley vs. history. The Eagles’ star running back is chasing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record, needing to average 140 yards per game over the final three weeks to break the mark. This game offers a key opportunity for Barkley to inch closer to history, but it will depend heavily on Philadelphia's game plan and whether the Commanders’ defense can contain him.

Prediction: Eagles secure a crucial victory. Their depth and well-rounded roster will ultimately be too much for the Commanders, as Philadelphia continues to assert itself as one of the NFC’s elite with a hard-fought win.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (right) with teammate Ja'Marr Chase (left) sharing a light-hearted moment postgame. Burrow's face is smeared with colorful frosting from a Simpsons dounut after the team's hard-fought Monday Night Football victory. [Credit: Kevin Jairaj/Imagn Images]

Browns (3-11) at Bengals (6-8)

Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST, CBS

It’s been a rough road for the Bengals this season, but they’re still alive in the playoff hunt, hosting a Browns team that’s already looking ahead to next year. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase have been electric all season, but the rest of the team hasn’t been able to match their level. Despite an 8% chance of making the playoffs, according to Next Gen Stats, Cincinnati knows their offensive firepower could make them dangerous if they get in.

The Browns, meanwhile, are already looking ahead to 2025. With a revolving door at quarterback, Cleveland is giving second-year quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson a shot under center. It’s an opportunity for Thompson-Robinson to showcase his potential, but the Browns’ inconsistent offense makes it tough to envision a competitive game.

Key Matchup: Dorian Thompson-Robinson vs. Bengals’ defense. The Bengals’ defense has struggled this year, but the Browns’ quarterback woes might make this a rare opportunity for Cincinnati’s unit to dominate.

Prediction: Bengals come out on top. With Burrow and Chase leading the charge, Cincinnati’s offense will be too much for Cleveland to keep pace. Expect the Bengals to stay alive in the playoff race with a comfortable win.

Sunday Afternoon Games

Vikings (12-2) at Seahawks (8-6)

Kickoff: 4:05 PM EST, FOX

The Vikings head to Lumen Field looking to keep pace with the Lions in the race for the NFC’s top seed. Minnesota has been one of the most surprising stories this season, with Sam Darnold leading a revitalized offense under the steady hand of head coach Kevin O’Connell, who’s making a strong case for Coach of the Year. For the Seahawks, every game is a must-win as they fight for a wild card spot while staying in the mix for the NFC West title.

Seattle’s Geno Smith enters this matchup nursing a knee injury but has been a full participant in practice. Against Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense, Smith’s ability to maneuver in the pocket will be critical. Flores has dialed up the pressure all season, and the Vikings’ defense has thrived in creating chaos.

Key Matchup: Geno Smith’s mobility vs. the Vikings’ blitz. If Smith can’t escape pressure effectively, it could be a long day for Seattle’s offense.

Prediction: Vikings win in a close battle. While the Seahawks’ offense has the weapons to keep this competitive, Geno’s limited mobility combined with the Vikings’ strong form gives Minnesota the edge in what should be a tightly contested game.

Patriots (3-11) at Bills (11-3)

Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST, CBS

The Bills are in a prime position to chase the AFC’s top seed, with every game holding serious implications for playoff positioning. For Buffalo, a win here puts pressure on Kansas City to keep winning in order to keep hold of the bye. The Patriots, meanwhile, are deep in a rebuild but are showing glimmers of hope with rookie quarterback Drake Maye. While New England’s focus is already on the future, games like this are crucial for development and evaluation.

This game might not top the excitement charts, but it’s an important tune-up for Buffalo. The Patriots are more concerned with giving rookie quarterback Drake Maye valuable reps than they are with winning games. For Buffalo, the challenge is avoiding a trap game. Expect them to focus on a balanced game plan, keeping their stars fresh and injury-free for the weeks ahead.

Key Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Patriots’ secondary. Allen’s ability to make plays both in and outside the pocket will test a young New England defensive backfield that has struggled against top-tier quarterbacks.

Prediction: Bills cruise to victory. Buffalo’s firepower on offense and stout defense will be too much for New England, as the Patriots’ youth and inconsistency leave them outmatched. 

Jaguars (3-11) at Raiders (2-12)

Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST, CBS

It’s a battle of struggling franchises playing for pride and draft positioning. Neither team will be in the postseason, making this a game more about off-field questions than on-field execution. Both Jacksonville and Las Vegas are juggling quarterback changes, disappointing seasons, and uncertainty about their respective rebuilds.

Key Matchup: Ownership Stability vs. Franchise Vision: Both teams face questions about leadership at the top. Can either team create a coherent path forward?

Prediction: Jaguars get the ugly win. Jacksonville’s slight edge in overall talent and clearer vision for the future gives them the nod in what’s likely to be a game few will remember come Monday.

Dec 8, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) reacts after rushing for a touchdown against the Chicago Bears in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. The play was later called back for offensive holding.
Dec 8, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) reacts after rushing for a touchdown against the Chicago Bears in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. The play was later called back for offensive holding. | Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

49ers (6-8) at Dolphins (6-8)

Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Both teams come into this game clinging to faint playoff hopes, with less than a 10% chance of making it, according to NextGen Stats. This matchup feels more like a proving ground than a playoff preview, with injuries derailing both teams' seasons. Still, deeper issues might be overshadowed by those setbacks, and this game is a chance for both teams to address them.

Key Matchup: Kyle Shanahan vs. Mike McDaniel. The two coaches share a rich history, with McDaniel serving under Shanahan at multiple stops before branching out as the Dolphins' head coach. This chess match on the sidelines could be as intriguing as anything that happens on the field.

Prediction: 49ers pull off a road win. The Dolphins have struggled with consistency, and Brock Purdy will look to bounce back after a rough outing last week. San Francisco’s depth and ability to adapt should be enough to secure a hard-fought victory. 

Sunday Night Football

Buccaneers (8-6) at Cowboys (6-8)

Kickoff: 8:20 PM EST, NBC

The Buccaneers come into this matchup holding a slim lead in the NFC South, riding the solid play of Baker Mayfield, who is quietly having one of the best seasons of any quarterback this year. Meanwhile, Mike Evans is just 251 yards away from his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season, which would extend his own NFL record. For the Cowboys, a disappointing season plagued by injuries and inconsistency still leaves them with a sliver of playoff hope, and a win here could keep those alive for another week.

Dallas has leaned heavily on their defense in recent weeks, with Micah Parsons continuing to be a game-wrecker despite nagging injuries. The Cowboys' offense, led by Cooper Rush, has been efficient but inconsistent, and they'll need to string together a complete performance to outlast Tampa Bay.

Key Matchup: Micah Parsons vs. Baker Mayfield. Mayfield has thrived this season by extending plays and escaping pressure, but he'll face a tough test in Parsons, whose ability to disrupt games could swing momentum in Dallas' favor.

Prediction: Tampa dominates to keep their NFC South lead secure. The Buccaneers' offense, powered by Baker Mayfield and a surging run game, proves too much for Dallas' inconsistent attack. On the other side, the Cowboys' lackluster offense struggles once again, failing to match Tampa's efficiency.

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