The 2024 NFL season has been a rollercoaster, packed with standout performances, surprises, and plenty of drama. As we inch closer to the playoffs, the MVP race is a lot closer than most people are making it seem. 

Sure, Josh Allen might be the favorite right now. But let’s not act like this race is already over. Lamar Jackson is quietly putting up another ridiculous season, Saquon Barkley is showing the league why running backs still matter, meanwhile, Jared Goff and the Lions offense have been one of the best stories in football. Each of these guys has a real shot, and with a few key games left, this race could still swing in any direction.

Speaking of swinging narratives, they’re always a huge part of this award. Allen not having an MVP yet gives him a big boost in the eyes of voters, while someone like Lamar, who’s already won twice (including last year), might face an uphill battle despite his numbers being just as good — if not better. 

This isn’t just about stats — it’s about moments, performances that define a season, and the narratives that stick with us. With just a few games left to play, this race is far from decided.

Josh Allen: The Dual-Threat Dominance

Josh Allen’s 2024 season has been nothing short of spectacular. Through 14 games, Allen's tied for the league lead in total touchdowns, (25 passing, and 11 rushing) amassing 3,818 total yards, all while throwing just 5 interceptions. His efficiency and ability to carry his team past expectations have solidified his place as the MVP frontrunner. 

He was already near the top of the pack, but his two most recent games gave him some cushion as the favorite. Against the Rams, he accounted for six touchdowns — three passing, three rushing — in a game where his versatility shined. The following week, he threw for 400 yards and had four total touchdowns against the Lions, snapping their 11-game winning streak.

For the first time in his career, Allen’s on track to throw over 25 touchdowns while keeping his interceptions in single digits. That’s huge for a guy who’s always been known for his high-risk, high-reward style of play. It’s clear he’s figured out how to rein things in without losing the big-play ability that makes him so dangerous. A recent NFL Network survey of 27 execs, including 17 GMs, had 22 votes going to Allen for MVP as of right now, and it's hard to disagree.

However, there’s a challenge: the Bills’ remaining schedule. With matchups against the struggling Patriots (twice) and Jets, Allen may not have many opportunities to strengthen his MVP case. 

Path to the MVP

As the favorite, Allen’s path is straightforward: avoid costly mistakes and continue his efficient play. Allen has the stats, and let’s be honest, the narrative is working in his favor too. He’s been in the MVP conversation for years but hasn’t taken home the trophy yet, and that’s something voters tend to think about. As long as another contender doesn’t completely take over in these last few weeks, Allen is in a great position to finally get his MVP.

Lamar Jackson: The Playmaker Extraordinaire

Lamar Jackson is putting together yet another jaw-dropping season, and somehow, it still feels underappreciated. He’s thrown for 34 touchdowns while only tossing three picks, which means he’s throwing 11 touchdowns for every interception — absolutely absurd efficiency. His passer rating is sitting at a league-best 120.7, a full 10 points higher than anyone else. And let’s not forget, this isn’t some dink-and-dunk operation. Jackson is top-10 in air yards per attempt, proving he’s making these plays by pushing the ball downfield.

This stellar year passing the ball hasn't taken away from his dual-threat capabilities; he still leads all quarterbacks with 743 rushing yards. The Ravens are true contenders because of Jackson, plain and simple.

But it’s not all perfect. Baltimore’s losses to some weaker teams have hurt his MVP case. Jackson also has to fight narratives, having already won the award twice — as recently as last year. Voters sometimes like to spread the love, and with Allen still waiting for his first MVP, the edge might go to Buffalo if it’s close. But purely by the numbers? Jackson might have the strongest case.

Path to the MVP

For Jackson to win, the Ravens need to close out strong. Clinching the AFC North with a big performance against the Steelers would help a lot. If he can dominate in meaningful games down the stretch and have that be the last thing people remember, voters will have a hard time justifying a different choice without admitting it’s about narrative. A dominant close to the season could flip the race in his favor — especially if he delivers in high-pressure situations and puts up another signature performance or two. The numbers are already on his side; now, he just needs the moments.

Saquon Barkley: The Non-QB Outlier

Saquon Barkley is reshaping how people think of running backs in 2024. In his first season with the Eagles, he’s led them to a 12-2 record while spearheading a top-10 offense in both total yards and points per game. The Eagles lead the league in rushing yards per game, are top two in rushing touchdowns, and dominate in explosive runs (10+ yards). Simply put, Barkley has been the heartbeat of their offense.

Individually, Barkley's amassed a league-leading 1,688 yards, good enough for 120 yards a game. With three games left, he’s just 418 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. That’s about 140 yards per game, a tall task but not impossible given his consistency this year. If he pulls it off, that record could be the tipping point voters need to seriously consider him for MVP.

And let’s not ignore the broader narratives working in his favor. Barkley’s season has come at a time when running backs’ value has been questioned like never before. From offseason debates about declining contracts to calls for the league to respect the position again, Barkley’s dominance is a loud rebuttal. Voters may see this as an opportunity to break the “quarterback-only” stigma surrounding the MVP award.

Path to the MVP

For Barkley to win, breaking Dickerson’s record feels like a must. That kind of accomplishment is something voters can rally behind, especially as they look for reasons to challenge the quarterback-dominated MVP trend. On top of that, continuing to be the engine behind the Eagles’ offense — controlling the clock, keeping drives alive, and delivering in big moments — will strengthen his case. Barkley’s path is difficult but not impossible, and it would send a powerful message about the value of elite running backs in today’s NFL.

Jared Goff: The Unexpected Contender

Jared Goff is quietly putting together one of the most efficient seasons of his career, leading the Detroit Lions to a 12-2 record and solidifying their spot as a top contender in the NFC. Statistically, Goff has been phenomenal. He’s second in the league in passing yards with 3,759, second in passer rating at 110, and second in completion percentage at an impressive 71.4%. Yet somehow, he’s still flying under the radar in the MVP conversation, sitting at +2800 to win — a number that feels way too high given his production.

Earlier this season against the Seahawks, Goff delivered a flawless performance, completing all 18 of his passes for 292 yards and two touchdowns. It was the kind of efficient, mistake-free game that shows just how locked in he’s been this year. But his biggest obstacle seems to be a lack of “statement performances” in marquee wins over strong teams. First Thing's First co-host Nick Wright pointed out, and I completely agree, that Allen’s six-touchdown game in a loss boosted his MVP stock significantly, while Goff’s nearly identical performance hasn’t quite had the same effect.

The Lions’ injury-decimated defense has also shaped Goff’s season. These last few weeks, Detroit has been forced into high-scoring shootouts, and Goff has consistently risen to the occasion. If the Lions continue winning this way, it could start to shift the narrative in Goff’s favor — but it’s going to take a lot.

Path to the MVP

Goff’s path to the MVP is narrow and won't be easy. With the way narratives are shaping up this season, he may not have much of a path at all unless a few things go his way. 

First, he’ll need standout performances in the Lions’ final three games, ideally with mistake-free football and a signature win. Week 18 against Minnesota could be that for him, as it looks like it's going to be for the NFC North title and could potentially even be for the top seed in the conference. Second, Goff needs other contenders to falter — Allen would need a subpar showing, and Jackson’s Ravens would have to stumble.

Odds and Opportunities: Where the MVP Race Stands Now

With Allen's odds to take home the award sitting at -900 and nearly a month of football left, there’s still plenty of value on the other contenders. 

Jackson's currently at +650 and could really swing things in his favor; thanks to a season filled with jaw-dropping numbers that might just be too impressive for voters to ignore. With four games of 4+ touchdown passes and zero picks, he’s having an even better season than when he won the award last year. 

Saquon Barkley (+1800) becomes an intriguing bet if you believe he’s going to break the single-season rushing record — a narrative voters won’t be able to ignore. 

And then there’s Jared Goff (+2800), who is likely going to have to keep putting up MVP numbers just for his team to stay in games, given how battered the defense is.

The MVP award often lives in the "what have you done for me lately" world, and this late in the year, public perception plays a huge role. If Allen stumbles, it could open the door for Jackson to capitalize with a dominant finish or for Barkley to shatter records and shift the conversation.

Far From Over

The 2024 NFL MVP race is still Allen’s to lose, but let’s not act like you can hand him the trophy just yet. Sure, his dual-threat dominance and quest for his first MVP give him the edge, but the gap isn’t as wide as many think. 

The final weeks of the season will ultimately tell the story. Every contender has a path to victory, but each one also needs a combination of personal brilliance and team success to seal the deal. Just a month ago, Jackson was the favorite, which goes to show how quickly things can shift in this MVP race. There are still plenty of defining moments left that could change the conversation yet again.

Odds mentioned are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are accurate as of the time of writing.