First-Round Drama: CFP Matchups, Analysis, and Predictions

The 2024 College Football Playoff features an exciting new 12-team format, designed to showcase the best teams in college football. 

The top four seeds — No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State, and No. 4 Arizona State — have earned first-round byes thanks to their stellar seasons. Oregon leads the pack as the only undefeated team, while Georgia looks to get back on top of the college football world. Boise State and Arizona State both bring with them elite running backs and likely the top two in the nation.

The remaining eight teams are preparing to face off in first-round matchups that promise to deliver thrilling action. Notably, the selection committee ensured no repeat games from the regular season, adding a layer of intrigue and fresh competition to this year’s playoff. 

First-Round Matchups

No. 5 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 12 Clemson Tigers

Texas comes into the playoff with a 12–1 record and a resume highlighted by a marquee victory over Oklahoma earlier in the season. The Longhorns are led by their star quarterback Quinn Ewers, a clear talent that shows it often, but can struggle to keep the ball out of harm's way. However, they have an incredibly unique ace up their sleeve in Arch Manning, who could be called upon if needed.

Texas’ defense has been a cornerstone of their success, excelling against some of the nation’s top athletes. They’ve shown a remarkable ability to contain explosive offenses, and this will be critical as they face a Clemson team with multiple playmakers. Texas’ SEC-level depth and physicality give them a significant edge in this game.

Clemson, with an 11–2 record, enters the game as the underdog but bring some significant playoff experience under head coach Dabo Swinney. 

Quarterback Cade Klubnik has developed into a dual-threat weapon, passing for over 3,300 yards and finishing the regular season as the team's second-leading rusher. Running back Phil Mafah complements Klubnik’s nicely, rushing for over 1,000 yards and taking advantage of defenses that focus on Clemson’s passing attack.

Prediction

The Longhorns' SEC pedigree will likely prove to be too much for Clemson to handle. I don't see a scenario in which Clemson's defense is able to contain the Texas athletic weapons on the outside. If The Tigers' offense doesn't come out firing on all cylinders, this one could get ugly quickly. 

No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 11 SMU Mustangs

This first-round clash between the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions and No. 11 SMU Mustangs brings together two teams with vastly different paths to the College Football Playoff. Penn State, a Big Ten powerhouse, and SMU making their first-ever CFP appearance, present an interesting matchup of experience versus underdog resilience.

Penn State comes into the game with both of their losses being one-score games against teams ranked in the top five. The Nittany Lions boast a balanced offensive attack led by junior quarterback Drew Allar, who threw for nearly 2,900 yards this season. Allar’s ability to take over games will be crucial if this team wants to make a deep run. 

The backfield duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen has been a consistent force, with both surpassing 800 rushing yards on the season, providing their offense with a solid one-two punch.

Penn State's secondary is among the best in the nation, allowing the 12th fewest passing yards per game. They'll certainly have their hands full against SMU’s aerial attack, but they've proven capable of rising to the challenge.

The Mustangs enter the playoff with a 12–1 record and a chip on their shoulder. The team gave their fanbase a big scare down 24-7 in the ACC Championship game. A run-of-the-mill loss wouldn't kick them out of the playoffs, but a blowout? That likely would've done the trick.

Despite that, the team ended up storming back to tie the game at 31 and would eventually lose on a field goal as time expired. With their playoff dream now realized, they’ll look to continue their Cinderella run. 

Sophomore quarterback Kevin Jennings has been the key to SMU’s offense, spreading the ball effectively and displaying impressive poise under pressure. Brashard Smith has been the workhorse for SMU’s ground game, consistently delivering big plays and providing balance to their attack.

Prediction

SMU was a great feel-good story for college football this year. Everyone loves an underdog that comes out of nowhere to crash the postseason party; unfortunately for them, that's likely going to end here. Penn State's well-rounded roster will overpower the top-heavy talent that SMU has on their's, and put an end to their season. 

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers

Notre Dame’s strength lies in its well-rounded roster. The team features a three-headed monster in the backfield, a group that's powered the offense throughout the season. 

Xavier Watts has been the standout on defense, leading the team in interceptions and tying for the lead in passes defensed. His elite technique often forces opponents to avoid throwing to his side of the field. Despite lacking explosive offensive firepower, their opportunistic defense has stepped up when needed, making them a dangerous and resilient opponent.

Meanwhile, Indiana enters the playoff with a 11-1 record, highlighted by victories over Nebraska, Washington, Michigan State, and Michigan before falling to Ohio State. 

The Hoosiers rely on quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has proven to be an efficient and accurate passer, completing 70% of his passes with just four interceptions all season. Wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. adds explosiveness to their offense, averaging over 21 yards per reception and consistently creating big plays.

Defensively, Indiana will need to stay disciplined to contain Notre Dame’s balanced attack. While their defense has kept them competitive in tight games, their offense’s ability to generate explosive plays has been a real difference-maker.

Prediction

This game promises to be a competitive battle between these two teams, but I happen to think that plays in Indiana's favor. If their stout defense is able to keep this game a close one late, their big-play offense will be able to seal the deal and allow them to pull off the upset.

No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers

The Ohio State Buckeyes and Tennessee Volunteers face off in a matchup that pits two powerhouse programs against one another. Both teams feature some elite talent, setting the stage for what promises to be one of the most exciting games of the first round.

Ohio State heads into the playoff with an 11–2 record and an impressive resume that includes victories over Penn State and previously undefeated Indiana. Quarterback Will Howard has stepped up in key moments throughout the season, though he’s had his share of late-game struggles. 

McCord’s favorite target, Jeremiah Smith, is the latest elite wideout in Ohio State’s storied tradition of producing top-tier receivers. Smith’s combination of size, speed, and hands makes him nearly impossible for opposing defenses to contain.

Tennessee boasts a 10–2 record with a marquee win over Georgia. However, their season was also marred by an unexpected loss to unranked Arkansas. The Volunteers’ offense is powered by running back Dylan Sampson, a versatile and reliable every-down back who’s been the backbone of their ground game. 

On defense, James Pearce Jr. is a force to be reckoned with. Projected to be a top NFL draft pick, Pearce’s ability to disrupt the quarterback will be key to Tennessee’s success, especially against Ohio State’s injury-riddled offensive line.

Prediction

Both programs bring plenty of history into this matchup, and Tennessee’s defensive line has the potential to cause problems for Ohio State. With that being said, the Buckeyes’ overall talent and depth throughout the roster should allow them to overcome any challenges Tennessee presents. While it may be a hard-fought battle, I see Ohio State ultimately coming out on top and advancing to the next round.