The late window gives us three games, and there’s plenty to keep an eye on. Chiefs–Broncos comes with first place in the AFC West on the line. Chargers–Rams has a winless team coming off their bye, hoping their offense can finally look like a real offense. And Patriots–Dolphins gives us Drake Maye, an improving Miami running game, and a good chance for somebody to make things more complicated than they need to be.

Chiefs at Broncos

4:25 p.m. ET CBS and Paramount+

This is the main-screen game.

Kansas City's 5–1. Denver's 5–2 and has won three straight. A Chiefs win gives Kansas City some breathing room and a season sweep. That’s a pretty big division swing for the first day of November.

Denver’s first shot at this matchup didn’t go well. The Chiefs won 31–10 in the opener, Kenneth Walker ran for 173 yards, and the Broncos missed 28 tackles. Twenty-eight. You can spend all week talking about coverages and pressure packages, but at some point, somebody has to bring the guy with the ball down.

Walker against Denver’s tackling is the matchup to watch. He comes into Sunday leading the league with 116.8 rushing yards per game. If first contact keeps turning into the start of the run, Denver’s going to have the same problem in a different stadium.

There’s more reason to feel good about the Broncos’ offense than there was two weeks ago. Bo Nix threw for 222 yards and broke off a 62-yard touchdown run in the 30–16 win over Arizona. Still, Denver went 3-for-11 on third down. The big plays were nice. Keeping drives alive is still part of the job.

Kansas City just got a reminder of what happens when you can’t get off the field. Seattle converted 11 of 16 third downsin their 20–3 win over the Chiefs and held the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Patrick Mahomes can’t save possessions his offense never gets.

Swing factor: Can Denver turn manageable third downs into longer drives? If the Broncos tackle Walker, they’ve got a real chance to keep this close. If they can also keep Mahomes on the sideline, winning this thing becomes a lot more realistic.

Chargers at Rams

4:05 p.m. ET FOX and FOX One

The shared stadium makes the “Battle of L.A.” branding pretty easy. The football question is a lot simpler: Can the Chargers block long enough for any of that to matter?

They’re 0–6, averaging 15 points a game, and Mike McDaniel's still calling plays after the bye. He and Justin Herbert supposedly spent four hours going through film together last week. Herbert’s assessment was pretty blunt:

Guys are open, and plays aren’t being made.

That’s not exactly where you want to be with this quarterback and this coaching staff. The injuries up front help explain some of it. But Herbert also went into the bye with eight interceptions. The protection issues are real. So is the need to stop turning one bad play into an entire bad possession.

The matchup is the Chargers’ interior protection against Aaron Donald and the Rams’ front. Donald’s return from retirement has become even more important with Kobie Turner and Poona Ford on injured reserve. The Rams have their own injury issues, but they still held Las Vegas to 48 rushing yards last week. There’s enough talent up front to make Herbert uncomfortable, especially if the Chargers fall behind the sticks.

The Rams finally gave Matthew Stafford some help, too. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 192 rushing yards in the 35–21 win over the Raiders, with Stafford throwing three touchdowns. That’s a much better way to play than asking Stafford to fix everything himself every Sunday. The Chargers also have to keep an eye on Derwin James’ hamstring setback; he didn’t practice Thursday. Their defense could really use a little help from the offense.

Swing factor: Can the Chargers stay out of obvious passing situations? A useful first-down run or a quick completion would do more for this offense than anything any of the coaches can say.

Patriots at Dolphins

4:25 p.m. ET CBS and Paramount+

New England has the league’s seventh-ranked offense by yardage. They're also 19th in scoring and 31st in turnover differential at minus-seven. So, yeah, there’s a good team in there. It just keeps leaving points on the field.

Maye threw for 321 yards against Chicago, but a red-zone interception helped turn a productive night into a loss. Miami’s defense should give him chances again. The question is how many of those chances New England actually turns into points. A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson missed Thursday’s practice, so their availability could have a real impact on what this offense looks like Sunday.

Watch Morgan Moses against Chop Robinson. Moses was limited Thursday with a foot injury, and Robinson leads qualifying pass rushers with a 23.4% pressure rate. Miami doesn’t have to shut Maye down all afternoon. One strip-sack at the wrong time could swing the entire thing.

The Dolphins are 1–5, but their offense has started to look like more than a weekly exercise in patience. Malik Willis threw two touchdowns and ran for another in the 28–25 win over the Jets. Ollie Gordon II added 103 rushing yards. His running, along with Willis’ ability to tuck and run, forces defenders to stay disciplined instead of flying after the first thing they see. Mike Vrabel coached Willis in Tennessee, so New England’s coach should have a pretty good idea of the problem he’s dealing with.

Swing factor: New England’s ball security. The Patriots have enough offense to win this game. Handing Miami short fields would be a pretty generous way to give that advantage right back.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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