Seattle has four days to move past a four-turnover loss. Denver has the same amount of time to figure out an offense that went 1-for-12 on third down. Then both teams have to play at 5,280 feet.

The 3-2 Seahawks visit the 3-2 Broncos Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. Seattle's the defending Super Bowl champion, but their 32-29 loss to San Francisco showed how quickly a game can slip away when you keep giving the ball back. Denver beat the Chargers 23-17 with the opposite formula: the offense struggled, but takeaways and good field position made the difference.

Seattle wants to create space for their playmakers and hit big plays. Denver wants to make every yard feel expensive. On a normal week, both teams would have time to build a plan. This week, they’ll need answers that are simple enough to work while everyone’s still sore.

First, Keep The Quarterbacks Upright

Seattle’s offense under coordinator Brian Fleury still comes from the wide-zone, play-action family that helped the team win a championship last season. The run action gets defenders moving, gives Sam Darnold clearer throwing windows, and lets Jaxon Smith-Njigba turn a little separation into a big gain. Rashid Shaheed adds speed from all over the formation. Against the Chargers, he even scored on a 28-yard toss from the backfield. Fleury can make a defense account for Shaheed without asking Darnold to hold the ball forever.

That matters against Denver. Zach Allen can wreck a pocket from the inside, and Nik Bonitto had two sacks against Los Angeles. The Broncos have 13 sacks through five games, and Seattle's allowed 11. If the Seahawks keep landing in third-and-long, Denver can turn those rushers loose instead of worrying much about the run.

Still, “just pressure Darnold” isn’t a full plan, especially with Denver’s secondary dealing with injuries. Pat Surtain II missed the Chargers game, Riley Moss missed it too, and Talanoa Hufanga left with an ankle injury. Surtain and Hufanga still aren't even practicing yet. Their availability for Thursday is still up in the air.

The protection battle cuts both ways. Denver has allowed just six sacks, but Seattle’s defense has 14. Byron Murphy II sacked Brock Purdy twice Sunday after San Francisco had kept him clean through four games. Bo Nix can extend plays, which is helpful, but that's a defense with a lot of speed on the other side.

Third Down Could Turn This Into A Long Night

Neither offense has been great when it gets to third down. Seattle's 17-for-57, which is just under 30%. Denver's 22-for-65, or about 34%, and against the Chargers, the Broncos converted once in 12 tries. You can't score points if you can't stay on the field.

For Seattle, the answer starts before third down even shows up. The Seahawks need Emanuel Wilson and the short passing game to do enough early that Sam Darnold isn’t constantly staring down third-and-long. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 583 receiving yards and seven touchdowns through five games, but it’s a lot tougher to get him loose when the defense knows a pass is coming. It’s a different story when the run is still a real threat. Cooper Kupp can help underneath, and Rashid Shaheed makes the defense cover the field side to side. Those options are a lot more useful on third-and-4 than on third-and-10.

There’s an opening for them here, too. Denver’s opponents have converted 33 of 73 third downs, roughly 45%. That’s not exactly the suffocating number you’d expect from a defense with this much talent. The Seahawks can take advantage if Darnold gets the ball out on time and doesn’t let the Broncos turn every third down into a pass-rush showcase.

Denver’s offense needs to be a little more patient. Sean Payton took play-calling back from offensive coordinator Davis Webb before the Chargers game, saying the offense had to get better at the small things that keep drives alive. One win didn’t magically fix that. Bo Nix has completed 59.9% of his passes and averaged 5.8 yards per attempt through five games. He doesn’t need to hunt for a big play every time the offense bogs down. He needs more drives where J.K. Dobbins gets four yards, Evan Engram or RJ Harvey gives him an easy answer, and Denver keeps the chains moving.

Seattle’s defense has allowed just 20 conversions on 68 third downs. They held San Francisco to 269 yards Sunday, even with 32 points going on the board. Denver can’t keep wasting possessions for three quarters and then hope one late drive cleans everything up.

Against this Seattle defense, that’s probably not going to work.

One Loose Ball May Be The Game

Here’s the uncomfortable part for Seattle: the defense leads the NFL with 11 takeaways, but the team’s still 3-2 because the offense has turned it over nine times. Four of those came against San Francisco. The 49ers turned those mistakes into 21 points and won by three.

Denver has seven takeaways, including three against the Chargers. Those three turnovers led to 13 points. So when Payton said the takeaways helped cover for some of what was going wrong elsewhere, he wasn’t just tossing out coach-speak. The Broncos haven’t consistently driven the length of the field. Their defense has just been giving them shorter fields to work with.

The turnover to watch is a strip-sack or rushed throw after a Seattle drive stalls, especially if Allen and Bonitto can get Darnold behind the sticks. They've already shown they can give the ball away, and Denver’s already shown they know how to cash in.

Field position cuts both ways, too. Seattle’s Michael Dickson has made punts tough enough to handle that opponents have muffed one in each of the last two games. Jason Myers made five field goals Sunday. Denver has Marvin Mims Jr. in the return game, along with a defense that can hand Nix the ball in scoring range. If sustained drives are hard to come by, one big return or a short field could be the difference.

The Pick

Seattle’s going to look at last week and see a reason to feel pretty good. They played about as poorly as they could against the 49ers and still kept the game close, which is a lot better than getting run out of the building. Now they get a Denver team coming in on a short week, and I think the Seahawks are ready to make life miserable for Bo Nix.

Denver’s offensive line has done a solid job protecting Nix, but Mike Macdonald's defense has no trouble getting home with four. If the Seahawks can avoid handing the Broncos easy chances — which has been the big issue in their losses — they should be able to keep Nix under pressure and force him to make the kind of mistakes he can’t afford.

Seattle’s secondary has some injury concerns, but I still trust their defense more than I trust Denver’s offense to consistently move the ball. Jaxon Smith-Njigba should have opportunities, too, especially if Denver can’t hide those coverage issues.

I think Seattle gets back on track, puts Nix in a hole early, and doesn’t let him climb out of it.

Seahawks 27, Broncos 17.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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