The OPOY Race Is Starting To Look Like A Two-Horse Race
Bijan Robinson spent Thursday night making one of the NFL’s best run defenses look almost optional.
Three days later, Jahmyr Gibbs answered with his best Barry Sanders impression — with Sanders himself in the building.
So, yeah, we should probably talk about this.
Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns in Atlanta’s 35-14 win over Green Bay, then added 19 more yards as a receiver. Gibbs followed that up Sunday with 99 rushing yards, seven catches for 65 yards, and three touchdowns as Detroit beat the Jets 31-24.
It’s only Week 3, so nobody sensible is handing out an award that won’t be decided for another three months. Injuries happen, defenses adjust, and September stats have a funny way of making everyone look foolish by December.
Still, it’s getting harder to ignore the lead these two are building when it comes to the Offensive Player of the Year race.
Robinson has 467 yards from scrimmage on 79 touches. Gibbs has 463 on 83. Robinson has three touchdowns. Gibbs has six. They’re both 24 years old, both top-12 picks from the 2023 draft, and both being used as the kind of complete offensive weapons teams spent most of the last decade insisting no running back could be.
They’re getting to almost the same place in completely different ways.
Bijan's Carrying The Whole Thing
Atlanta’s first two games were rough enough to hide just how good Robinson had been.
The Falcons scored 16 total points and were somehow the only offense in the league that hadn’t run a red-zone play. Robinson still piled up 254 yards from scrimmage, accounting for nearly half of Atlanta’s entire offense.
That’s the Bijan argument in one sentence: When everything around him is wobbling, he’s the thing keeping it upright.
Green Bay was supposed to be the real test. The Packers came into Thursday allowing 2.9 yards per carry and had given up just two explosive runs to running backs. Then Robinson ripped off a 55-yarder in the first quarter and spent the rest of the night making one of the league’s fastest defenses look like they couldn't keep up.
He finished with 213 yards from scrimmage on 31 touches. According to NFL Pro, 96 of those rushing yards came after he forced a missed tackle. For the season, Fantasy Points Data has credited him with 11 missed tackles forced and 3.2 yards after contact per attempt.
Those numbers explain what makes him different better than any highlight reel can.
Robinson isn’t just waiting for Atlanta’s line to open up a clean runway. He slows the play down, pulls a linebacker out of his gap, and then hits the space that defender just left. He described it as “playing peek-a-boo” with defenders, which sounds almost too cute until you watch an entire front seven start second-guessing themselves.
The power matters, too. Robinson weighs 215 pounds and still almost never goes down on the first meaningful hit. Since entering the league, his 205 missed tackles forced are more than any other back.
That’s what carrying an offense actually looks like. It’s not just handling a huge workload. It’s creating yards when the structure around you hasn’t done enough.
Gibbs Is The Most Dangerous Piece In A Well-Oiled Machine
Detroit's offense is the polar opposite with Gibbs.
The Lions have scored exactly 31 points in each of their first three games, and their offense is built to make defenses miserable. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta force teams to defend every inch of the field. The offensive line can still move people, and new coordinator Drew Petzing inherited one of the deepest groups of skill players in football.
That doesn’t make Gibbs any less impressive. It makes the choices around him downright miserable.
Load the box and Detroit can throw. Stay light and Gibbs can hit a crease before the safety even realizes what happened. Blitz Goff and Gibbs can slip into space against a linebacker who has basically no chance of keeping up.
The Jets saw all three versions Sunday.
Gibbs scored on a 17-yard cutback that sent multiple defenders chasing the wrong way. Later, with 2:30 left, he caught the game-winning 11-yard touchdown. By the end of the afternoon, he had passed Billy Sims for second in Lions history with 43 rushing touchdowns. Only Sanders is still ahead of him.
Gibbs said there was a little extra to this one with the legend in the building:
Anytime he’s here I have to step up my game. To be in the same conversation as him is humbling.
That comparison doesn’t feel completely ridiculous anymore.
Gibbs is the first player in NFL history to open a season with at least 300 rushing yards, 150 receiving yards, four rushing touchdowns, and two receiving scores through three games. Fantasy Points charted 19 forced missed tackles and gave him the second-best separation score among running backs.
The old concern was volume. Gibbs shared the backfield with David Montgomery for three seasons and played 56% and 57% of Detroit’s snaps in his first two years. Montgomery's in Houston now, and Dan Campbell spent the offseason calling Gibbs the bell cow.
He wasn’t kidding.
Gibbs has handled 78% of Detroit’s carries and 55% of their red-zone opportunities. He’s played more than 70% of the snaps in every game and has a 19% target share, ahead of both Williams and LaPorta. This isn’t a change-of-pace back putting up absurd efficiency on 14 touches. Detroit's given him a full workload without taking away the explosiveness that made the lighter role so much fun.
This Is What A Modern Feature Back Looks Like
Robinson and Gibbs came into the league four picks apart, right in the middle of the annual debate over whether taking a running back in the first round is irresponsible team building.
Three years later, Atlanta and Detroit gave them massive extensions just three days apart. Robinson briefly became the highest-paid back in football. Gibbs then nudged past him.
Honestly, that timing feels about right because they’re wrecking the easiest argument against paying the position.
Neither guy needs 25 handoffs and a dominant offensive line to make an impact. Robinson led all NFL players with 2,298 yards from scrimmage last season, including 820 as a receiver. Gibbs followed with 1,839 scrimmage yards and 18 touchdowns, then became Detroit’s second-most-targeted player through three weeks of 2026.
They can run inside, create explosive plays outside, run real routes, and make a defense pay for choosing the wrong personnel. If they’re staying on the field for third down and the two-minute drill, calling them “running backs” doesn't feel like it tells the whole story.
That’s the bigger point here. The feature back didn’t disappear. He evolved into someone an offense doesn’t have to substitute.
Gibbs Has The Early Edge With Voters
The early math is hilarious. Robinson's on pace for 2,646 yards from scrimmage. Gibbs is on pace for 2,624 yards and 34 touchdowns. That would put both of them past Chris Johnson’s single-season scrimmage record of 2,509 yards, and Gibbs would pass LaDainian Tomlinson’s record of 31 touchdowns.
They’re not doing that. This September pace isn't sustainable over 17 games.
Still, the categories that matter are already starting to take shape. Robinson has the better yardage case and the narrative of carrying the load. Gibbs has the touchdowns, the better team, and more chances to put up the kind of Sunday-night numbers voters remember.
Recent history says that matters. Christian McCaffrey won in 2023 with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns. Saquon Barkley followed with 2,283 yards and 15 scores. Robinson led the league with 2,298 scrimmage yards last season, but his 11 touchdowns left him fourth in voting.
Yardage gets a running back into the conversation. Touchdowns and a season-defining story usually finish the argument.
That gives Gibbs the edge today. FanDuel has him as the +300 favorite, while Robinson sits at +1500 after falling as far as +1600 during Atlanta’s ugly start.
And to be fair, team performance has a lot to do with how these odds are being made right now. Gibbs is playing in a better offense, and that gives him more chances to pile up touchdowns and big moments. Robinson is doing more heavy lifting for Atlanta, but the Falcons’ overall situation is making it harder for the market to reward him.
There are other people in this race, obviously. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 405 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Kenneth Walker III has been ridiculous in Kansas City. Declaring any September award a literal two-player contest is how you end up getting quoted back at you in December.
But if this award comes out of a backfield, the list should still start with these two.
All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.
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