Hunter Tierney Jul 3, 2026 7 min read

The Knockout Stage Is Already Taking Victims

June 29, 2026; Foxborough, Massachusetts, U.S.; Paraguay's Orlando Gill celebrates winning the penalty shootout as Paraguay qualify for the round of 16 stage of the World Cup.
David Butler Ii-Imagn Images

It’s Thursday, and I still can't stop thinking about Monday's World Cup games.

Paraguay didn’t just “hang around” with Germany; they knocked them out in penalties. Morocco needed them too, to get them past the Netherlands. And Brazil needed a Japanese mistake to squeak past them with a decider in the 95th minute.

That’s the knockout stage. Not chaos for the sake of it — pressure that keeps building until something gives. It doesn’t care about rankings, resumes, or how good you looked last week. It cares about who handles the next moment better.

Monday was three straight hours of that, in three different cities, with three different favorites all dealing with the same problem.

And if that’s what the Round of 32 looked like, we're in for a treat over these next couple of weeks.

Germany Learned That Reputation Doesn’t Play Defense

Paraguay showed up to Gillette ranked 41st in the world. Germany showed up ranked 10th with four stars on their shirts and all the history that comes with it. This wasn’t supposed to be complicated.

It got complicated. Fast. Julio Enciso went up and beat the German back line to a ball in the 42nd minute, nodded in a Galarza cross, and suddenly Germany was the one chasing.

Havertz pulled them level early in the second half, and from there it looked like the usual script. Germany had the ball, the corners kept piling up, and it felt like it was only a matter of time. Except it never really turned into anything. Orlando Gill kept showing when it mattered, and every time it felt like Germany was about to land the punch, they just… didn’t.

They thought they had it in extra time. Tah gets up, heads it in, game over — except it isn’t. VAR wipes it out for a foul on Gill, and that’s basically the last clean look they get.

So it goes to penalties, and this is usually where Germany just handles it. They hadn't lost a shootout in any major tournament in the last 50 years... until this one. Havertz missed. Nick Woltemade missed. Tah — who’d already had his moment taken away — blasted his over the bar. Paraguay didn’t make it easy on themselves either, with Antonio Sanabria missing and Manuel Neuer getting a hand on another. But José Canale buried his, and that was that.

Germany out. Still no knockout win since 2014.

And the part that really sticks: the new format almost felt like it was created just to get them a knockout win. And they still couldn't do it — against 41st-ranked Paraguay.

Morocco Dominated The Game And Still Needed A Miracle

June 29, 2026; Monterrey, Mexico; Morocco's Soufiane Rahimi, Ahmed Reda Tagnaouti and teammates celebrate after the match as Morocco qualify for the Round of 16 stage of the World Cup.
Eloisa Sanchez-Reuters via Imagn Images

In Monterrey, Morocco spent most of the night as the better team and had nothing to show for it. Neil El Aynaoui had a header somehow kept out by a ridiculous reflex save from Bart Verbruggen off an Achraf Hakimi corner. Hakimi kept knocking on the door too — tested Verbruggen again a few minutes later, then got in behind the Dutch defense one-on-one and still couldn’t beat him, smashing his shot off the crossbar instead. Morocco was doing everything right… except scoring.

And then the Netherlands flipped it anyway. One long goal kick, Wout Weghorst flicks it out there, Crysencio Summerville gets there and squares it for Cody Gakpo, and he finishes it. Seventy-second minute. Netherlands up 1-0. Feels like that’s it, especially against a team that’s already wasted a handful of chances.

But this is the knockout stage, and it loves messing with you like that. Just when you think you’ve got it figured out, it flips the script. First minute of stoppage time, Chemsdine Talbi swings in a cross, Issa Diop is somehow completely alone, and he buries the header to drag Morocco back from the dead. They almost finished it just a few minutes later too — Soufiane Rahimi got in clean on goal — but Verbruggen had one more save in him.

But then Yassine Bounou steps up and makes the save that flips everything, getting a hand on Summerville’s shot, and Ismael Saibari calmly puts away the winner like it’s nothing. Morocco 3, Netherlands 2 on penalties.

Now it’s Canada in Houston. And if Monday proved anything, it’s that control doesn’t mean much if you can't find a way to finish.

Brazil Got The Best-Case Version Of The Same Warning

Then Houston, where Brazil ran into a Japan team that wasn’t there to hang around — they showed up expecting to win, and played like it.

Japan's now gone out in its first knockout game in five straight World Cups — that same ceiling their fans have been talking about forever. For about an hour on Monday, it really felt like they were finally going to break through it. Kaishu Sano jumped on a loose ball near midfield, blew past Casemiro like he wasn’t even there, and carried it forty yards before ripping his first international goal past Alisson in the 29th minute. Brazil — five-time champs, ridiculous talent everywhere you look — suddenly looked a little shaky. Not panicked, but definitely uncomfortable.

Brazil responded the way teams with that much talent usually do. Casemiro made up for the turnover with the equalizer, and from there it turned into waves — crosses, pressure, more crosses — just waiting for something to break. Vinícius almost ended it on his own, but Suzuki got just enough to push it into the post, and Japan kept holding on.

And honestly, they held up shockingly well. Right up until the 95th minute. They end up with a loose ball in a bad spot, Brazil recycles it, Guimarães slips Martinelli through, and that’s the difference. One touch, game over.

Brazil didn’t need penalties or extra time, but they still needed help. Japan did almost everything right and still went home because of one mistake. That’s not really praise or criticism, it’s just what these games turn into.

And if you’re Brazil, that’s the part you can't ignore. Next up is Norway, and there’s nothing about Monday that says this one’s going to be comfortable either.


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