Thursday's Heat-Warriors game on NBA TV is getting sold as Giannis vs. Curry, and sure, that's the marquee. Two former MVPs, two of the hardest guys to stop of the last decade, one building.

But as I dug more into this one, the most important matchup is actually something way less glamorous: Miami vs. the three-point line. Can Miami keep this team from getting open looks from deep? Because if they can't, Giannis could drop 40 and it might not matter.

Two Teams, Two Very Different Octobers

Quick catch-up if you've been locked into football. Miami made one of the summer's biggest swings in June by sending Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, and a pile of picks to Milwaukee for Giannis and Bobby Portis. Then they scooped up Klay Thompson after his Dallas buyout. On paper, that's a contender. In practice, it's a 2-5 heading into Wednesday night's game against the Clippers, and that includes the first 0-3 start of Erik Spoelstra's 19 years running the show.

Giannis has held up his end with 28.4 points and 12.3 rebounds a night on 58.6% shooting, and he's been doing it lately with a sprained right wrist. It's everything around him that's been the problem, especially the defense. After Luka Dončić hung 42 on them Monday, Giannis didn't sugarcoat it:

Right now, we don't trust one another.

Bam Adebayo went with:

Nobody's going to come save this ship.

Golden State's been the opposite story. The Warriors opened 0-3 for the first time in Curry's career, including a home opener where they got outscored 17-2 over the last 3:47 by Memphis. Then they ripped off five straight. Steph's averaging 30 points at 38 years old and rookie Yaxel Lendeborg — the No. 11 pick out of Michigan — is putting up 21.5 a night and already dropped 37 on the Clippers. Jimmy Butler's still out rehabbing the ACL he tore against, of all teams, the Heat last January.

The Arc Is the Whole Ballgame

The Warriors set a franchise record with 116 threes over their first seven games, and they just outscored the Lakers 66-33 from deep while climbing out of a 25-point hole. Miami, meanwhile, gives up a league-high 17.3 made threes per game and ranks 29th in opponent three-point percentage. Minnesota outscored the Heat 63-24 from behind the arc on opening night. You don't need a spreadsheet to see where this is headed.

Miami's best counter is to drag this thing into the paint. The Heat play fast — second in pace — and Giannis is shooting 23.5% from three, which is fine, because he doesn't need to shoot threes against this frontcourt. Kristaps Porzingis is out, Al Horford's 40, and somebody like Charles Bassey or Draymond Green is in for a long night getting run over.

Draymond, by the way, got tossed Monday after throwing Phoenix's Khaman Maluach to the floor, so that matchup should be nice and friendly.

Klay, and the Last Two Minutes

Then there's the Klay of it all. Thompson spent 13 seasons and won four rings in Golden State, and he's hitting 41.1% from three in Miami. He's been pretty clear about Thursday:

I want to beat them bad.

I'd bet Chase Center gives him a standing ovation when his name gets announced and then goes quiet every time he catches it in the corner.

Late-game, though, it tilts hard. Giannis is shooting 61.9% from the line and has already fouled out twice in seven games. Miami blew a fourth-quarter lead to Dallas while going 14-of-25 at the stripe. Curry has missed one free throw all season. And the Heat will be on the second night of a back-to-back while the Warriors haven't played since Monday. If it's close with two minutes left, I know whose legs I trust.

Who Takes It?

Warriors, and I don't think it's especially close. A rested Golden State team with the hottest 38-year-old in sports against a tired defense that can't guard the arc is about as clean a setup as you'll find in November. Give me Golden State by double digits.

If the Warriors handle business, it'll be another loud reminder for Miami that defense was supposed to be the whole point here.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com.

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