I went through all 272 matchups game by game, just to see how I think the NFL season actually shakes out when you stop guessing and start following it all the way through.

And  — breaking news — the AFC is stacked, and they're going to eat themsleves alive. It’s brutal, but it tracks. This conference isn’t short on contenders — it’s overflowing with them.

Buffalo still has Josh Allen. Denver just added Jaylen Waddle to a roster that already reached the AFC Championship Game. New England is coming off a Super Bowl appearance. Houston’s defense is one of the most punishing in football. Jacksonville won 13 games last year. The Chargers have hit 11 wins in back-to-back seasons under Jim Harbaugh. Baltimore now has Trey Hendrickson to pair with a Lamar Jackson–Derrick Henry backfield.

Even Kansas City, after a 6–11 season, still feels like the team nobody wants to see if Patrick Mahomes is healthy in January.

How the Seven Fall Into Place

1. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's the second-biggest regular-season leap I’ve got on the board, and I’m pretty comfortable with it. That 8–9 finish last year looks worse than it actually was — they still had a positive point differential, and Lamar missed four games. Even then, he put up 21 touchdowns in just 13 starts. Derrick Henry came in and did Derrick Henry things with 1,595 yards and 16 scores at 5.2 a carry. Zay Flowers cleared 1,000 yards again. When those guys were on the field together, the offense wasn’t the problem in Baltimore’s collapse.

The pass rush was. They only got to the quarterback 30 times, tied for third-fewest in the league. So they went and fixed it — bringing in Trey Hendrickson on a four-year, $112 million deal and then grabbing Zion Young in the second round. Hendrickson leaving Cincinnati for Baltimore is the kind of move that can swing a division on its own. Jesse Minter's a first-time head coach, but he’s been in the building, and Anthony Weaver gives him a steady defensive voice. The offensive line is still a bit of a question after Tyler Linderbaum left, but they didn’t ignore it — they took Vega Ioane in the first round and added a few veterans too.

Fourteen wins is going to take some good health and a staff that clicks quickly, but I think they’ve got a real shot at both. And honestly, that Jackson–Henry backfield is still the most unfair weekly problem in the conference.

2. Houston Texans

Houston’s defense is really what gives them the safest floor in this whole field, and honestly it’s the thing that makes me lean to them in this division even with how much I respect what Jacksonville and Indianapolis are building.

They allowed 277.2 yards per game last season, best in the NFL, and just 17.4 points, second best. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can completely wreck a drive before it even gets going, and Derek Stingley Jr. plus Jalen Pitre give DeMeco Ryans the freedom to stay aggressive without feeling like he’s gambling. There just isn’t a lot of projection needed here — they’re already elite.

The path to 13 wins really comes down to whether the offense can stop making C.J. Stroud do everything the hard way. Houston went out and added Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller, and Evan Brown, then doubled down by taking guard Keylan Rutledge at 26. David Montgomery steps in for Joe Mixon and should help keep things on schedule.

Losing Jayden Higgins to an ACL tear in August stings a lot, especially after he put up six touchdowns as a rookie, but Nico Collins is still a true No. 1 and Tank Dell is back after missing all of 2025. Stroud doesn’t need to drag a top-five offense here. If the rebuilt line just gets them from “inconsistent” to “solid,” that defense is good enough to turn a bunch of those 23–17 type games into a division title — and probably the No. 2 seed.

3. Kansas City Chiefs 

Look, Kansas City went 6–11 last year. I know how ridiculous 13–4 sounds right after typing that, but that’s kind of the point — that record just doesn’t match what they actually looked like. It was one of the weirdest seasons I can remember: a +34 point differential and somehow 1–9 in one-score games. That’s not a normal six-win team, and it sure didn’t feel like one before Mahomes went down with the ACL and LCL injury in Week 15. If his recovery stays on track, I’m fully expecting a pretty hard snap back toward what we’re used to.

And honestly, I think people counting this team out are just being foolish. This is a group that was in the Super Bowl 18 months ago. Eighteen months. And outside of some turnover in the secondary, it’s pretty much the same core. That secondary does give me some real questions, I won’t pretend otherwise, but this is also a staff that’s known for developing guys and getting the most out of what they have in that room specifically.

They also didn’t just sit still with the roster. Eric Bieniemy's back as offensive coordinator. Travis Kelce re-signed after an 851-yard season and should be coming in healthier and a bit fresher. Kenneth Walker III came to town just a few months after running for 135 yards and winning Super Bowl LX MVP against New England. He finally gives Mahomes the kind of run-game answer this offense has been missing — they ranked just 25th on the ground.

On defense, yes, losing Trent McDuffie is a big deal — no way around that. But they brought in three early defensive picks along with veterans like Alohi Gilman, Khyiris Tonga, and Emmanuel Ogbah. Mansoor Delane and Peter Woods are going to have to grow up fast, but that’s part of the deal in this league.

At the end of the day, the AFC West isn’t going to give anyone room to breathe, and everything really comes back to Mahomes’ knee. But I’m still taking the swing here. A healthy Mahomes, an actual run game, and a deeper defense? That looks a whole lot more like a 13-win team than what we saw last year. And if they’re anywhere near right by the playoffs, I think they’ll be right back to being themselves — which should honestly scare everybody else.

4. Buffalo Bills

For me, Buffalo’s regular season feels like the easy part. Josh Allen put up 3,668 passing yards, 39 total touchdowns, and still helped the Bills lead the league in rushing while dealing with a broken foot. James Cook went off for 1,621 yards on the ground. Now DJ Moore walks into an offense that finally has another guy defenses actually have to worry about every single snap.

Pete Carmichael's stepping in as offensive coordinator, but Joe Brady's still the head coach. That overall structure around Allen isn’t being torn down or anything close to it.

Where I start to get a little more cautious is on the defensive side and with the coaching turnover. Sean McDermott is gone, and Jim Leonhard wants to turn things up and be more aggressive. Bradley Chubb helps with that pass rush, no question, but losing Taron Johnson and Taylor Rapp in the secondary matters more than people want to admit.

When a defense is changing calls and trying to heat up quarterbacks more often, communication becomes everything. I still trust Allen to smooth out a lot of that over a long season, especially with the energy of the first year in the new stadium. Thirteen wins and another AFC East title feels very realistic to me.

The real worry is what happens in that one bad game in January when everything can end in a single snap.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville won 13 games last season, so calling 12–5 a slight step back isn’t really meant as disrespect. Liam Coen kept his entire coordinator group intact after a year where the Jaguars put up 474 points, gave up 336, and saw Trevor Lawrence account for 38 total touchdowns. Anthony Campanile’s defense was elite against the run with just 85.6 yards allowed per game and came away with 22 interceptions. That kind of identity tends to hold up.

They did lose some real contributors, though. Travis Etienne is gone after three straight 1,000-yard seasons, Devin Lloyd left following an All-Pro year, and the secondary took hits with Greg Newsome II and Andrew Wingard moving on. The draft didn’t exactly bring a wave of instant impact guys either.

But honestly, the upside is still sitting right in the middle of this roster. Travis Hunter barely got going as a rookie because of the knee injury, only playing seven games, so Jacksonville still hasn’t really seen the version of the two-way player they traded up for. If he’s healthy, he changes things immediately — he fits right into a receiver group with Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers, and he gives the defense a real playmaker who can flip a game.

And this is where I’ll be pretty straightforward about how I feel: I believe in Trevor Lawrence, especially with Coen now leading the offense. I don’t think we’ve seen his ceiling yet, not even close. He looks settled in, more comfortable, and more in control of what they’re doing.

The young defense is another year older, another year more experienced too. So yeah, I’m pretty high on this team. I’m expecting maybe a little regression in the record, but not some big fall-off. If anything, I trust the continuity and the growth here more than I trust a lot of the flashier overhauls happening everywhere else in the AFC.

6. New England Patriots

The Patriots are going to hear about their soft 2025 schedule until they prove last year wasn’t a one-off, and honestly, that’s fair. They did still go 14–3, score 28.8 points per game, allow 18.8, and make it all the way to the Super Bowl. Drake Maye clearly took a big step under Josh McDaniels, and Mike Vrabel now gets the rare benefit of basically running it back with almost the entire coaching structure after a breakthrough year.

That said, I don’t think it was all perfectly clean or repeatable. The offense got red-hot at the start of last season, and the defense finished on a heater too, and when both ends of the team peak like that it can make things look a little more stable than they actually are. I do expect the offense to be better over the course of a full year, but not necessarily in that same week-to-week dominant way they started last year with.

The roster is still improved, though. A.J. Brown steps in as the new featured receiver, and that alone changes how defenses have to play them. Alijah Vera-Tucker joins an offensive line that already has Will Campbell, Mike Onwenu, and Morgan Moses, so there are a lot more answers up front. Kevin Byard is coming off a seven-interception All-Pro season and should help an already solid defense stay organized on the back end.

Still, I don’t think that defense is going to be able to sustain the same level of play they showed down the stretch for a full season. And while Maye’s early hot streak last year was real, that’s also the kind of thing defenses spend all offseason studying. They’re going to have more answers for it now.

New England’s schedule does get tougher, and dropping from 14 wins to 12 feels like a reasonable way of accounting for that. It’s not me saying last year was fake at all. It’s just acknowledging that things were a little streaky, and that’s hard to perfectly repeat.

7. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati's the team I’m trusting to make the biggest jump back, because their 2025 season was pretty easy to figure out. Joe Burrow only got eight games after toe surgery, and the defense was a mess — 28.9 points per game allowed and 31st in yards. That’s how you end up 6–11 even with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside.

If Burrow's even close to himself again, the offense fixes itself fast. Honestly, I’m hoping Joe leans a little more into just controlling games and time of possession when he can, but either way, that side of the ball is going to be fine. This is really all about the defense — just like last year. The difference is, this time there’s no Hendrickson on that side anymore.

And to their credit, Cincinnati didn’t just cross their fingers and hope it worked out. They traded the 10th pick for Dexter Lawrence II, brought in Jonathan Allen next to him, added Bryan Cook in the secondary, and used pick No. 41 on Cashius Howell after his 11.5-sack season. Losing Hendrickson to Baltimore stings, no way around it, but Lawrence and Allen should at least make the middle of that defense way harder to deal with.

They don’t need to suddenly become a top-10 defense. They just need to get off the field a few more times so Burrow, Chase, and Higgins can do their thing. I’ve got that being enough to push them to 11–6, and that 8–4 conference mark should be just enough to edge out Denver for the last spot.

The Two Omissions That Hurt

Denver's the one that kind of hurts to rank this low, because I don’t think they’re a fluke at all. They were the AFC’s No. 1 seed last year, knocked off Buffalo in overtime in the divisional round, and still made it to the conference title game even after Bo Nix went down with a fractured right ankle right after that Bills win. That defense was legit — 311 points allowed, league leaders in sacks, the whole deal. Then they go out and trade a first-round pick in a package for Jaylen Waddle, which finally gives Nix a legit speed weapon to pair with Courtland Sutton.

The only real concern is the offseason not going smoothly. Nix had to get a second ankle procedure in April to clean up bone spurs, so he didn’t exactly get a normal ramp-up. Davis Webb is stepping in as the main play caller now while Sean Payton still has his fingerprints all over everything. I’ve still got Denver at 11 wins, and in most years that’s a really strong season. But in this AFC West and with one extra conference loss baked in, that’s the difference between hosting a playoff game and sitting at home watching it.

They might even be better than a couple teams that sneak in, but tiebreakers don’t care about “might be better.”

Right behind them on the cut line, I’ve got the Chargers. Jim Harbaugh has somehow kept this thing at 11 wins in both of his seasons, and Mike McDaniel scheming up an offense for Justin Herbert feels like it could get dangerous in a hurry. The defense quietly led the league in yards allowed last year, and Tuli Tuipulotu breaking out with 13 sacks was a big part of that.

But I just can’t ignore the offensive line situation. Herbert got sacked 54 times, and now they’ve already lost Tyler Biadasz — the center they brought in to stabilize things — to a major knee injury in camp. So now rookie Jake Slaughter is basically being thrown into the fire to hold it all together. They’ve got the talent to make me look foolish, no question, but somebody from this division has to take the losses. On my board, the Chargers take more than they'd hope to.

How the AFC Playoffs Play Out

Wild Card Weekend

(2) Texans Over (7) Bengals

This is probably the best offense vs. defense matchup of the opening weekend. Cincinnati can score with anyone when Burrow's right, but Houston’s offense has enough juice to keep them at bay with that defense.

What I keep coming back to is what the Texans can do without having to sell out. They don’t need to blitz themselves into trouble. Anderson and Hunter can still get home with just four rushers. Stingley can hold up on the outside in one-on-ones. And Pitre can live around the line of scrimmage, messing with Burrow’s reads before the ball's even snapped.

On the other side, the Bengals’ rebuilt defense should be better, but this is still their first playoff run together as a unit. Houston doesn’t need Stroud to go off for 350 yards. Montgomery can help them stay patient and physical, and then Stroud just has to hit Collins or Dell when Cincinnati finally creeps an extra body into the box.

I think the Bengals land a couple of big punches and keep it tight into the fourth quarter. But Houston’s defense makes one more play late — a pressure, a disruption, something that tilts it — and the Texans pull it out in the kind of 24–20 game they were built for.

(3) Chiefs Over (6) Patriots

New England’s offense is a real problem for defenses here, and I don’t think that's getting talked about enough. Brown gives Maye a receiver who can actually win through contact against Kansas City’s rebuilt cornerback room. So yeah, the Patriots can move the ball. I just keep coming back to the idea that by January, Kansas City is still the more complete team, and that’s really where the Walker signing starts to matter.

Walker ran for 135 yards and finished with 161 scrimmage yards against New England in Super Bowl LX, so this isn’t some random matchup for him. He’s seen exactly how Seattle kept Maye stuck on the sideline and took away the Patriots’ ability to let the pass rush take over the game. Kansas City doesn’t need to copy that blueprint perfectly, but they finally have a back who can punish light boxes and turn decent blocking into explosive gains. That changes everything for their offense, because it opens up play-action for Mahomes and keeps Kelce from having to live in the middle of the field on every single third down.

The bigger separator, though, is what Kansas City can force Maye to deal with mentally. Spagnuolo against a young quarterback in Arrowhead is still a brutal ask, especially with the speed and depth they’ve added up front compared to last year.

New England's good enough to make this uncomfortable early and maybe even land a few punches. But over four quarters, Mahomes usually finds a way to turn a couple extended plays into points, Walker wears things down in the second half, and Kansas City ends up winning this a little more comfortably than most people are expecting.

(5) Jaguars Over (4) Bills

Here’s the upset, and I don’t say that lightly. Buffalo already barely squeaked by Jacksonville 27–24 in last year’s wild-card round, and then things somehow got worse the next game when Allen threw four picks in that overtime loss to Denver. It’s been the same story hanging over this team all offseason.

McDermott got fired, Brady got promoted, and now the Bills are rolling into the playoffs with a first-time head coach trying to rein in Allen without taking away the chaos that makes him Josh Allen.

And honestly, Jacksonville is kind of built to make that whole situation uncomfortable. Campanile’s defense was No. 1 against the run, so Cook might not be able to bail Buffalo out the way he usually does. Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker can get after the quarterback without the secondary having to sell out behind them. And if Hunter's healthy and doing Hunter things, he’s the type of player who can make an impact on either side of the ball. Not many playoff teams can say they’ve got that kind of wild card.

I just think Allen and Brady end up forcing it a bit. Maybe it’s a fourth down they don’t really need to go for. Maybe Allen skips the easy checkdown because he sees something bigger downfield. Buffalo will still hit enough explosive plays to keep the place rocking, but the tighter it gets, the faster those decisions start to come.

Lawrence has already been through this exact kind of loss, and this time he gets the cleaner final drive. Jacksonville sneaks out of Buffalo with a one-score win, and a 13-win Bills season turns into yet another postseason in Western New York nobody’s going to be excited to relive.

Divisional Round

(1) Ravens Over (5) Jaguars

Jacksonville gets rewarded with a trip to Baltimore to face a rested Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and yeah… that’s about as rough a turnaround as it gets. The Jaguars’ run defense at least gives them a fighting chance compared to most teams, and Campanile will probably have something cooked up to try and slow down that attack.

But the real issue is what happens after you’ve spent 45 minutes trying to tackle Derrick Henry while Lamar keeps bouncing outside the edge and Zay Flowers is finding those soft spots behind linebackers who are creeping closer and closer to the line of scrimmage.

The bye week matters a lot here. Henry's 32, and you can bet Baltimore is going to be smart about keeping him fresh for January. That week off means the whole backfield comes in with fresh legs, and Jacksonville would be coming off an emotional, physical win in Buffalo. On the other side, Minter gets extra time to figure out how to pressure Lawrence and deal with a Jaguars offensive line that’s still figuring themselves out after all the offseason changes.

Jacksonville can hang around for a half if things break right. But eventually Baltimore’s depth and that run game just wear you down. The Ravens pull away late, and they don’t even really need Lamar to go full superhero mode to finish it.

(3) Chiefs Over (2) Texans

This is the kind of game where you find out if Kansas City’s “comeback season” actually means something or if it’s just been a nice run that runs out of gas here. Houston’s defense is built to mess with everything Mahomes likes to do. The pass rush can get there in a hurry, Stingley can take away a top option, and the safeties are solid enough to keep Kelce from turning every catch into a mini highlight reel like he usually does.

I think Ryans is going to make this feel uncomfortable for Kansas City all night and keep it close enough that Stroud still has a real shot late.

Walker’s going to matter, but this isn’t one of those games where he’s just gashing people for easy yards. Kansas City needs him to stay steady, stay on schedule, and keep those third downs from turning into obvious passing situations. That’s what keeps the whole offense from getting stuck.

On the flip side, the Chiefs’ young secondary is going to have their hands full with Collins and Dell, especially without McDuffie back there to clean things up when someone gets beat. That’s a big reason I don’t see this turning into a comfortable Chiefs win.

And then it eventually gets to the part Houston spends all game trying to avoid: Mahomes, ball in his hands, about four minutes left, everything on the line. There’s just something about that situation that never feels fair. He’ll turn a broken play into a first down, escape what should be a sack, find Kelce when everything’s falling apart, and suddenly Kansas City's right where they need to be. Houston’s defense can do just about everything right for 58 minutes. Mahomes just has a way of making those last two feel like they belong to him.

AFC Championship Game

(3) Chiefs Over (1) Ravens

Baltimore's probably the better overall team in this matchup. They’ve got the deeper backfield, a more obvious identity on the ground, and they’re at home. Hendrickson gives them a closer they didn’t really have last year, and by this point Minter’s defense should be a lot more dangerous than it was back in September. If this was just about who looks cleaner on paper, I’d lean Ravens without thinking too hard.

But it’s not that simple. This is where Baltimore’s two biggest question marks show up at the same time. Minter's walking into his first conference championship in his first year as a head coach, and Declan Doyle's calling his first one as offensive coordinator. On the other side is Reid, Bieniemy, Spagnuolo, and Mahomes — a group that’s basically built for these moments and knows exactly what happens when the original plan stops working.

And I can just see how this might go for Baltimore. It’s the same kind of thing Buffalo runs into a round earlier. The energy gets tight, a couple drives don’t go smoothly, and suddenly they’re pressing a little. Maybe Doyle feels like he has to answer Mahomes right away and drifts away from Henry for a bit. Maybe Lamar tries to turn a 6-yard gain into something bigger because he feels the game speeding up. It doesn’t have to be a collapse. Against Kansas City, just a couple of those moments is usually enough.

For the Chiefs, everything in this retool has to click at the right time. Walker has to keep Baltimore honest. Kelce has to still win those third downs that used to feel automatic. The rebuilt defense has to actually bring Lamar down in space, which is way easier said than done. And Mahomes has to be fully comfortable on that knee by January, because Hendrickson, Madubuike, and all those pressure looks aren’t going to let him sit back and get cozy.

And honestly, I think he will be. Kansas City survives the messy middle of the game, doesn’t panic when Baltimore is controlling the clock, and hangs around into the fourth quarter within a score. That’s where it usually shifts. The experience shows up. Mahomes hits one of those plays only he seems to make and Spagnuolo dials up one late pressure that forces Baltimore to speed up just a little more than they want.

A year after going 6–11, the Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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