Gas Prices Are About to Jump — and Analysts Say This Is Just the Beginning
Fill up now if you can. What you're paying at the pump today may look cheap in a few weeks.
The effects of the US-led war on Iran are hitting American wallets in the most direct way possible — gasoline and diesel prices are spiking, and analysts warn the worst is still ahead. The national average for regular gasoline stood at $4.44 per gallon Thursday, according to AAA. Diesel has already hit a record national average of $6.40. In California, drivers are paying $6.04 for regular gas and $8.35 for diesel.
Those numbers are already painful. They're about to get worse.
Why This Is Different
Gas prices normally fall after Labor Day. Summer driving demand drops. Refiners switch to cheaper winter-grade fuel blends. Pump prices typically drift down through September and October — a predictable seasonal pattern that gives consumers a break heading into the holidays.
That pattern is not happening this year. International energy market pressure is overwhelming the seasonal decline entirely.
The trigger is a chain of events that started with the US-led military campaign against Iran and has been escalating ever since. Last week, drone attacks launched from Iraq damaged sections of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline — a 745-mile overland artery that serves as the kingdom's primary alternative to moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz. That pipeline connects eastern oil fields to Red Sea export terminals and moves millions of barrels daily. Its partial closure removed significant supply from global markets at exactly the wrong moment.
Before that attack, the situation was already described as a shipping crisis — delays and disruptions in oil transport flowing through contested waterways in the region. The pipeline damage threatens to escalate it into a broader supply disruption that energy markets hadn't fully priced in.
Crude oil has surged past $109 per barrel — up from around $72 just weeks ago — and the full impact of that price jump hasn't yet worked its way through to gas stations.
What Comes Next at the Pump
Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser for Gulf Oil, was direct about what's coming. Retailers are still catching up to wholesale price increases, meaning the prices you'll see at the pump over the coming days haven't yet fully reflected where crude oil is trading right now.
"Watch for huge increases in Great Lakes and Rocky Mountain states in particular," Kloza warned.
GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan echoed that, warning gasoline and diesel prices were positioned for another increase within 48 hours, particularly in portions of the nation's interior.
Prediction markets are already pricing in extreme outcomes. Traders on Kalshi currently see a 71% chance that the national average surpasses $4.60 per gallon — above the prior 2026 peak of $4.56 hit in May. They give 57% odds of prices topping $4.80 and more than 40% odds of crossing $5.00. The all-time national record is $5.02, set in June 2022.
Why Diesel Matters More Than Most People Realize
Most Americans think about gas prices in terms of what they pay at the pump for their own vehicle. Diesel tells a different and more consequential story.
Trucks move virtually everything sold in the United States — food, clothing, building materials, consumer goods. When diesel prices spike, trucking costs spike. When trucking costs spike, the price of everything those trucks carry goes up too. At $6.40 per gallon nationally and $8.35 in California, diesel is already at record levels, and the inflationary pressure that creates runs through the entire consumer economy. Grocery bills, Amazon deliveries, hardware store inventory — all of it moves on diesel.
The Administration's Response
The Trump administration has maintained that the situation is under control and pointed to a new oil agreement with Venezuela announced September 2, which it says will eventually add supply to American refineries. The White House says Venezuelan oil could begin reaching the market by the end of 2026, with more meaningful volumes coming next year.
The key word is eventually. The Venezuelan arrangement covers about 250,000 barrels per day from existing production — meaningful, but modest against global disruptions of this scale. And it doesn't arrive until after the current crunch.
For drivers filling up this week, the math is straightforward and unpleasant: crude above $109, damaged Saudi infrastructure, a contested waterway, and retailers still catching up to wholesale prices. The $4.44 national average today is not where this ends.
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