Three games are all it takes for us to start acting like we’ve got an NFL team figured out.

The reality is, three games are nowhere near enough to actually prove anything.

That’s what makes Week 4 so interesting. Five teams are still undefeated, and five others are already 0-3. The entire AFC North is sitting at 2-1, and every team in the NFC South is below .500. (Shocker...) One big afternoon can completely change the way we talk about a team. One more loss can turn the rest of the season into a scramble to recover.

There are 16 games from Thursday night through Monday, including a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff from London and four division matchups. But not every game carries the same weight, and you don’t need to pretend they do.

Here’s where the week really matters.

The AFC North Is Going To Start To Separate

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns kick off the week Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime, and honestly, the timing feels perfect.

Every AFC North team is 2-1. Pittsburgh just beat Cincinnati 30-27. Cleveland held off Carolina 21-18. Baltimore escaped Dallas with a field goal as time expired.

That four-way tie isn’t going to last forever.

The funny thing is, neither of these teams have looked like a consistently good offensive team. The Steelers rank 26th in scoring and managed just 16 total points in their first two games. The Browns rank 30th in total offense, averaging 266 yards a game.

Then both quarterbacks finally gave their teams something to work with.

Aaron Rodgers threw three touchdown passes against Cincinnati, and Mike McCarthy’s promised offense finally showed up for more than a few scattered moments. Deshaun Watson wasn’t spectacular against Carolina, but he led an eight-play, 55-yard drive for the winning touchdown after Cleveland fell behind with four minutes left.

Watson's quietly completed 68.3% of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception. Rodgers has four touchdowns, two interceptions and a 58.4% completion rate. Neither offense is exactly humming, but both quarterbacks have done enough to keep things from falling apart.

Thursday gives one of them first place and an early head-to-head edge. Pittsburgh would also move to 2-0 in the division after beating Cincinnati.

Throw in the short week, two pretty good pass rushes, and a rivalry that's never needed good football to turn into complete nonsense, and this feels like exactly the kind of Thursday night game that could get ugly in a hurry.

London Gets Two Teams That Just Saved Themselves

The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders were both 0-2 last Sunday. They both found very different ways to make sure they wouldn’t be heading to London without a win.

Indianapolis beat Houston 19-17 despite losing the turnover battle 3-0. The Colts hadn’t won a game with a minus-three turnover margin since 1999, which is a pretty wild stat. Injured kicker Spencer Shrader came through with four field goals, including a 53-yarder in the last minute, while a defense that had given up 1,029 yards over the first two weeks finally made one last stop when it mattered.

Washington’s win was a lot louder.

With Jayden Daniels sidelined by another dislocated left elbow, Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns without an interception, and the Commanders forced three turnovers in a 33-31 upset of the defending champion Seattle Seahawks. Washington turned those takeaways into 21 points, which is about as clean a way as you can draw it up.

Now both teams are 1-2, and both know there’s a big difference between 2-2 and 1-3.

The football itself is only part of the story here. Washington flew to London on Tuesday so they could get a normal week of practice overseas. Indianapolis is sticking with the routine that helped them win in Frankfurt in 2023 and Berlin last season: leave Thursday night, land Friday morning and practice later that day.

Naturally, people are going to think about the travel differences in that Australia game between the 49ers and Rams, but a flight to London isn't quite the same as one to Melbourne. The Commanders will get more time to adjust to the five-hour time difference. But the Colts get to keep more of their normal workweek at home and avoid spending nearly an entire week in a hotel, which probably sounds pretty good to most people.

Daniels is traveling and expected to practice in some form, but Washington has no reason to rush him after Mariota’s performance.

The Early Window Is Full Of Quiet Desperation

There isn’t one obvious centerpiece in Sunday’s eight 1 p.m. ET games. The pressure is spread all over the schedule.

Houston's probably the top of that list. The Texans are 0-3 for the second straight season and now have a Dallas team coming to town that’s 1-2 after a last-second loss to Baltimore in Brazil. Houston did recover from 0-3 to make the playoffs last season, but that doesn’t make this start normal. It makes the Texans one of only seven teams in NFL history to reach the postseason after losing their first three games.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also 0-3, and now they’re heading to Green Bay. The Packers are only 1-2 themselves after Atlanta ran for 242 yards and embarrassed them, 35-14, at Lambeau Field. Somebody leaves that game feeling like the season has finally started. Somebody else heads into October wondering how much of this can actually be fixed.

Tennessee's 0-3 heading into Baltimore. The Ravens are 2-1, but they’ve played three fourth quarters that would raise a cardiologist’s blood pressure. The Los Angeles Rams are 1-2 and headed to Philadelphia with Buffalo waiting the next week. The Eagles are 2-1, but they’re coming off a 27-7 loss to Chicago and third-string quarterback Case Keenum.

That’s the feel of this window. The New England Patriots are trying to mess up Buffalo’s 3-0 start, but their offense has been struggling to move the ball consistently. The Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals meet at 2-1 — this may be the true best game of the window with two outstanding offenses. The Arizona Cardinals visit a surprisingly 2-1 New York Giants team. The Jets and Bears get a chance to show whether their uneven starts are headed somewhere useful or just getting messier.

None of these games needs to be sold as a Super Bowl preview. They matter because Week 4 is when “slow start” starts turning into “this might just be who they are.”

Kansas City–Las Vegas Is The Main Event

The best standings game of the week doesn’t get here until 4:25 p.m. ET.

Kansas City and Las Vegas are both 3-0. Yep, the Raiders are playing for first place.

Las Vegas has already matched last season’s win total. Their defense has forced nine takeaways, the most the franchise has had through three games since 2002. Brock Bowers came back from knee surgery against New Orleans and immediately caught 10 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown. Kirk Cousins is tied for the league lead with nine touchdown passes.

The Raiders aren’t just squeaking by while waiting for reality to catch up. They’ve beaten the Dolphins, the Chargers, and the Saints, with the last two wins coming after they fell behind by double digits.

Kansas City, on the other hand, looks like Kansas City again.

Patrick Mahomes is back from his knee injury, but the biggest change is happening behind him. Kenneth Walker's rushed for a league-leading 360 yards and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. The Chiefs can finally make defenses pay for keeping two safeties deep instead of politely accepting the invitation and asking Mahomes to solve everything himself.

History isn’t exactly on Las Vegas’ side. Mahomes is 6-0 at Allegiant Stadium. But there’s also enough through three weeks to think this Raiders team might finally be capable of making him work for No. 7.

Niners Get A Real Test

Denver at San Francisco is kicking off with that one. The 3-0 49ers are averaging 32.7 points, and Brock Purdy's thrown nine touchdowns and one interception. Denver's averaging just 20 points, but their defense has eight sacks, a league-leading four interceptions, and just dragged the Broncos back from down 16 against the Rams.

To finish off the late window, you've got an 0-3 Miami team vistiting a 3-0 Minnesota, while the 0-3 Chargers head to Seattle. The records tell you exactly which teams can play loose and which ones are already running out of room.

Sunday Night Could Turn Into A Track Meet

Detroit at Carolina doesn’t have the same buzz as some of the late-window matchups, but the numbers say you probably shouldn’t sleep on it.

The Lions are averaging 31 points a game. The Panthers are at 29.7. Both teams are plus-three in turnover differential, and both offenses are being powered by guys off to ridiculous starts.

Jahmyr Gibbs has already racked up more than 300 rushing yards, 150 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. That makes him just the second player in NFL history to hit all three of those through three games. Jared Goff, meanwhile, has completed 72.8% of his passes with eight touchdowns and still hasn't tossed an interception.

Carolina’s got a pretty good case of their own. Bryce Young leads the league with 939 passing yards and has thrown seven touchdowns. He’s also the first Panthers quarterback to throw for at least 280 yards in each of the team’s first three games of a season.

The defenses are doing their part to keep this interesting, too. Detroit's given up a league-high 898 passing yards and 13 touchdowns. Carolina's allowed 580 rushing yards at 5.7 yards per carry.

So yeah, this feels less like a careful prime-time chess match and more like Gibbs and Young taking turns trying to break the scoreboard.

The NFC South Gets Monday Night To Themselves

Atlanta and New Orleans close out the week Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN, with first place in the NFC South potentially just sitting there for the taking.

The Panthers, Falcons, and Saints are all 1-2. Tampa Bay's 0-3. The entire division is underwater, and nobody seems particularly interested in grabbing a life raft.

Atlanta comes in with some momentum after Michael Penix Jr. came back from ACL surgery and helped the Falcons pile up 500 yards in a 35-14 win at Green Bay. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards. Drake London had 194 receiving yards. After two weeks of looking completely lost in the passing game and not making it to the red zone, Atlanta suddenly looked like the offense everyone expected them to be.

New Orleans got the exact opposite experience.

Tyler Shough threw four touchdowns against Las Vegas and gave the Saints a 27-16 lead. Then everything fell apart. Their final five possessions ended punt, fumble, interception, fumble, and fumble. The Raiders won 35-27.

So Monday isn’t really about figuring out which team is secretly great. It’s about seeing which one can handle a little success.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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