Fernando Mendoza has already shown the Raiders how unpredictable life with a rookie quarterback can be.

In one preseason game, the No. 1 overall pick shook off a shaky start and led a 79-yard touchdown drive. A week later, his third pass was returned 80 yards for a pick-six, and Houston spent most of the first half reminding him how quickly NFL windows close.

That's enough to get fans arguing about what comes next. It still isn't enough for Klint Kubiak to name his Week 1 starter.

For now, Kirk Cousins is still the obvious choice. He opened camp at the top of the depth chart, looked sharp during his only preseason series, and already knows how to run Kubiak's offense. But the bigger question is how long that arrangement lasts when Mendoza's the quarterback Las Vegas drafted to change the direction of the franchise.

My guess is Cousins gets, at the bare minimum, the first eight games. I actually think the most likely outcome is Mendoza making his first start in Week 12 against the Browns.

One Terrible Throw Didn't Erase The Debut

Mendoza's first preseason game was a pretty good sign. He completed 10 of 16 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown, but the final numbers don't really tell the whole story. The bigger thing was how he settled down after a rough start.

His first series looked rushed. He went 1-of-3 for nine yards and seemed a little jumpy in the pocket. Then he came back out and looked much more comfortable, completing four of five passes, threading a 19-yard throw to Malik Benson between three defenders and finishing the drive with a six-yard touchdown pass to Jack Bech. That was the version of Mendoza the Raiders wanted to see: calm, willing to stand in there, and trusting what he saw downfield.

The Houston game was a different story. Mendoza got the game going with a 22-yard strike into a tight window that was really encouraging. The outside linebacker was facing the sideline, and Fernando fired a rocket past his earhole before he could turn around. The next snap was a big run from Mike Washington Jr. that had the Raiders inside the 25 already.

Then Mendoza dropped back and had his first two reads taken away. He ended up coming back to Washington Jr. over the middle and rookie linebacker Wade Woodaz took it 80 yards the other way. It realy seems like it was miscommunication more than anything — Mendoza clearly thought the rookie running back was going to sit more in his spot, and instead he drifted out and left an opening that Wade Woodaz stepped right into.

Mendoza was sacked once, hit five times, and finished 8-of-15 for 86 yards. Las Vegas went into halftime down 20-3 before Aidan O'Connell helped lead the comeback.

The pick-six was ugly. Mendoza missed the throw, then got shoved aside when he tried to make the tackle. There really isn't a nicer way to describe it. It was a rough preseason moment.

Still, one bad play doesn't erase everything else. Kubiak said Mendoza did some of his best work on important downs and pointed to an early third-down throw he put in the right spot even though he had some pressure in his face. Two other third-down passes were dropped, too. So while the box score looked rough, Kubiak's review was a lot more balanced.

Mendoza said the NFL is "a whole step further" and that one small mistake can turn into a catastrophe. That's probably one of the more useful lessons he could take from a preseason game. In college, you might get away with a bad decision. In the NFL, somebody's usually waiting to turn it into six points.

The bigger concern is that pressure was already the main question surrounding Mendoza's game. Sports Info Solutions found that he produced a positive play on 66% of his clean-pocket snaps during his final season at Indiana, the best rate among the 29 quarterbacks in its study. Under pressure, that number dropped to 33%. His on-target rate fell 21 percentage points, and he took a sack on 20% of those plays.

That doesn't mean Houston proved Mendoza can't handle an NFL pocket. It means the Raiders saw the part of his game that still needs work. He can improve while playing, sure, but Las Vegas has something most teams don't get with a No. 1 pick: time. Mendoza doesn't have to learn every lesson under the spotlight.

Cousins Is A Real Starter, Not A Cardboard Cutout

Cousins is 38, so nobody needs to pretend the Raiders just found their next 10-year quarterback. They drafted that guy in April.

That doesn't mean Cousins is just keeping the seat warm, though. He can still make this a real competition. After Michael Penix Jr. went down last season, Cousins went 5-3 in eight starts, throwing for 1,721 yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions. It wasn't the old Minnesota version of Cousins, but it was solid, competent football from a veteran who had looked pretty close to done when Atlanta benched him late in 2024.

The Kubiak connection helps, too. Cousins threw for 12,089 yards and 94 touchdowns during their three seasons together in Minnesota, when Kubiak was first his quarterbacks coach and then his offensive coordinator. The terminology isn't exactly the same now, but Cousins isn't walking into this offense cold. He knows how to get everyone lined up and run the play-action game.

We only got a tiny sample of that against Arizona. Cousins completed five of six passes for 50 yards, wasn't touched, and finished the opening drive with a 13-yard touchdown pass to Michael Mayer. It was one preseason series, so nobody should be building a statue over it. But it was also exactly what the Raiders signed Cousins to do.

That kind of stability matters. The Raiders gave up an NFL-high 64 sacks last season and are still trying to rebuild the offensive line around Kolton Miller and new center Tyler Linderbaum. Throwing the rookie into that situation just because No. 1 picks are usually expected to start right away would be foolish.

Cousins' contract doesn't mean the Raiders have to stick with him forever, either. The complicated deal includes just $20 million guaranteed for 2026, and Las Vegas controls the future options. He's being paid enough to be treated like a real starter, but the deal is flexible enough for the Raiders to move on when keeping him around stops making sense.

The Best Opening Isn't Until December

Luckily for him, the schedule gives Cousins some room to work.

Las Vegas opens against Miami, the Chargers, and New Orleans. If Cousins is playing well and the Raiders come out of that stretch 2-1, there won't be much of a fuss. Mendoza can keep taking practice reps, clean up his work under pressure and learn the full offense without being thrown into the deep end.

If the Raiders are 1-2 or 0-3 and the offense looks stuck, the conversation is going to get loud. But that doesn't mean Mendoza should start in Week 4.

Kansas City, New England, Buffalo, and Los Angeles are next. All four of those teams have made the conference championship game in the past two seasons. That's not the stretch where you toss your rookie quarterback into the lineup just because the veteran hasn't been good enough.

Week 8 against the Jets would be a more reasonable checkpoint if the Raiders simply can't keep living with Cousins. By then, Mendoza will have had nearly three months of NFL practices, and the Raiders will have a much better idea of whether they're trying to save the season or start building for the future.

Even then though, the schedule isn't exactly begging for a rookie debut. The Jets get followed up by the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos. That's another stretch where you probably don't want Mendoza learning on the fly against three teams that can make life miserable for a young quarterback.

The cleanest plan might be to prepare him for Week 11 against Denver. Give Mendoza more practice reps with the first team that week, get him ready for the possibility of playing ,and let Cousins start the game. If the Broncos build a big lead, put Mendoza in and start the Fernando era.

That would give him a much more manageable runway. After Denver, the Raiders play the Browns and immediately follow it with their bye.

If that's when they pull the trigger, the Browns, Cardinals, and Titans would be three of his six starts for the year. That's a much better setup than asking him to make his first start against Kansas City, Buffalo, or San Francisco.

Of course, if Cousins is playing well and the Raiders are in the race, he should keep starting. Sitting Mendoza for most or even all of his rookie year won't hurt him nearly as much as putting him on the field before he can protect himself and the football.

The Raiders Don't Need To Choose Yet

Kubiak's been pretty consistent since the spring. In a perfect world, he wouldn't have to throw a rookie quarterback into the lineup right away. When camp opened, he named Cousins the starter but also made it clear that Mendoza and O'Connell were supposed to push him. After the Houston game, Kubiak said there was still another week of competition and that nobody should feel too comfortable.

That might sound like standard coach-speak, but it's also the right way to handle this quarterback room.

If Cousins plays poorly, his runway gets shorter. If the Raiders stumble out of the gate and every cautious, low-risk possession starts to feel like a missed opportunity, the pressure to make a change will start stacking. On the other hand, if Mendoza keeps improving in practice and starts looking more comfortable under pressure, that could speed up the handoff. If those same pressure issues keep showing up, it'll probably take longer.

Those things matter a lot more than picking a random Sunday now and pretending it's destiny.

So how long will Cousins actually start? Probably through October. Maybe into December. If he keeps the Raiders competitive, it could be much longer than that.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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