Quarterback is deep again, which sounds like a reason to wait to take one in your fantasy draft. And it can be — but only if you know what you're waiting for.

The mistake is treating every quarterback outside the top few as interchangeable. They aren't. Some bring an extra layer with their legs that can carry a mediocre passing day. Others need massive volume or a perfect touchdown rate to pay off.

That's why I care more about the tiers than the exact ranking. If two quarterbacks are in the same tier, I probably don't care which one you draft. Take the player you believe in, the one who fits your roster — or just the one who falls furthest. The important part is knowing when the quality of the options starts to change.

So no, I don't feel the need to force the position early. The goal is to find a quarterback who can give you the kind of weekly production that wins matchups, not only to draft the first recognizable name. I would gladly pay for Josh Allen if the price is reasonable, but I'm also comfortable waiting through the next couple of names.

The real cliff comes after Justin Herbert. Before that, there are still quite a few quarterbacks I can trust as my starter. After him, though, every option asks me to overlook a real flaw or make a stronger projection. That's where the draft starts to get interesting.

Tier 1 — The Cheat Code

1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen scored 374.5 fantasy points, led all quarterbacks with 579 rushing yards, and ran for 14 touchdowns. And somehow, that was his lowest points-per-game average since 2019. He’s finished in the top three for quarterbacks in points per game for five straight seasons and hasn’t missed a start.

Nobody else gives you Allen’s combination of passing upside, goal-line work, and durability. Buffalo also added DJ Moore without changing the basic structure of the offense under Joe Brady and Pete Carmichael. The only real knock is the price.

If Allen goes in the second round, I’m probably taking a premium running back or receiver instead. If he makes it to the third, though, I’m interested. Even a cheat code can be a bad buy if the room makes you overpay.

Tier 2 — Elite Difference-Makers

This is the group that can give you a weekly advantage without standing entirely alone. All four can finish as the QB1. Every one also brings a question Allen doesn't.

2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson's my favorite bounce-back bet in this tier. Injuries held him to 13 games, and his 5.2 rushing attempts per game were more than three below his previous career low. That’s a huge deal for a quarterback whose fantasy value is built on what he can do with his legs. He still averaged 8.4 yards per pass and threw 21 touchdowns, so it’s not like the passing game fell apart. Baltimore really just needs a healthy version of their two-time MVP.

If the rushing volume gets back to normal, Jackson can absolutely challenge Allen for the top spot. If Derrick Henry and a more conservative offense keep those carries down, Jackson will need to be nearly perfect as a passer to make up the difference. I’m betting the legs come back enough to make him my QB2.

3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow played just eight games after toe surgery and still threw 17 touchdowns. The availability concern is real, but Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown give him plenty of ways to make plays. Cincinnati's defense could help too by actually getting the ball back to Burrow every now and then.

In leagues that award six points for passing touchdowns, Burrow has a real case to be QB2. He doesn't need goal-line carries if 40 passing touchdowns are within reach. Jackson's still the better pick in standard scoring, but Burrow becomes great value if he makes it another round.

4. Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Maye completed 72% of his passes and finished with 4,394 passing yards. He chipped in another 450 yards on the ground, which is a pretty useful bonus from a quarterback. New England also swapped Stefon Diggs for A.J. Brown, added Romeo Doubs, and upgraded the offensive line with Alijah Vera-Tucker.

The only real concern is that you're paying for Maye after almost everything went right last season. Defenses have a full year of Josh McDaniels' offense to study now, and the schedule gets tougher. Still, Maye's rushing ability gives him some breathing room if the passing numbers come back to earth a bit. He doesn't need to repeat last year's efficiency to still be a really strong fantasy quarterback.

5. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

This is much higher than where Stafford sits on most boards, but I’m not sure the market has given him enough credit. He led the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns, threw just eight interceptions and tied Maye with 21.1 fantasy points per game. Sean McVay's still calling the offense, and Puka Nacua's still going to be a nightmare for defenses.

No, Stafford probably isn’t throwing 46 touchdowns again. He’s 38, he doesn’t give us anything as a runner, and some regression is bound to happen. That’s fair. But dropping him all the way to QB12 feels like overcorrecting for regression that hasn’t actually happened yet.

Stafford could lose eight touchdowns and still be one of the best pocket passers in football. In six-point passing-touchdown leagues, I like him even more.

Tier 3 — Strong QB1s

This tier is why waiting works. I would be fine leaving a one-QB draft with any of these eight players as my starter. The ceilings aren't identical, but the price usually falls much faster than the production.

6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts had a down year by his standards and still averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game, with 421 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. He’s finished among the top seven quarterbacks in points per game for five straight seasons, and Philadelphia has made it clear the tush push isn’t going anywhere under Sean Mannion.

Hurts doesn’t need to throw 35 times to give you a big fantasy week. A pretty normal game for him can just be 40 rushing yards, a rushing touchdown, and 160 passing yards and that would be enough to get him past most quarterbacks. That rushing floor is tough to find, and it’s why Hurts sits at the top of this tier for me.

7. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Goff threw for 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns last season. Only Matthew Stafford threw for more yards. The concern is the same one we’ve had with Goff for years: if Detroit scores all their touchdowns on the ground or the protection falls apart, his legs aren’t going to save your fantasy week.

I’m still higher on him than most. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta give Goff one of the best groups of playmakers in football, and Detroit should keep throwing enough to make that matter. The offensive line changes add some risk, but the volume gives Goff one of the safest paths for managers who decide to wait at quarterback.

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott completed 67.3% of his 600 attempts for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns. That was good for fifth in total quarterback points, and now he gets most of the same setup back around him. He’s not going to give you much with his legs, which is why he doesn’t quite belong with the elite quarterbacks, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a really useful fantasy starter.

When a draft room starts treating pocket passers like leftovers, I’m happy to take the guy who’s still going to throw a lot of touchdowns.

9. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence finally put together the kind of season we’ve been waiting for, throwing for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns while adding nine more scores on the ground. Liam Coen’s offense clearly helped, and the Jaguars kept the coaching staff together instead of starting over again.

The rushing touchdowns are going to come down. Lawrence had nine last year after never having more than five in a season. That’s not a reason to fade him, though. Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and a healthy Travis Hunter give him enough weapons to make up for some of that production through the air. I’m buying the offense.

10. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels at QB10 is probably where I veer off the most from the consensus. I get why people want to push him up the board. The rushing upside is obvious, and if he stays healthy, he could easily finish much higher than this.

But that’s also the problem: he only played seven games last season and is heading into another new offense behind a line that just lost Laremy Tunsil. Stefon Diggs should help, and Daniels’ legs give him a pretty nice floor when everything is working. I just don’t want to pay a fifth-round price and assume he’s automatically going to recreate his rookie-year passing efficiency. Let him show me he can stay on the field first.

11. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes was the QB2 in fantasy through Week 14 last season before tearing his ACL and LCL. He also ran for career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns, which helped make up for another season with a passing touchdown rate below 5%.

Kansas City expects him to be ready, but I wouldn't bet on the same rushing production a few months removed from major knee surgery. The Chiefs also added Kenneth Walker III, so they should have a more reliable running game to lean on. Mahomes can absolutely beat this ranking with his arm. I’m just not interested in paying for the fully healthy, vintage version before we know that’s what we’re getting.

12. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Purdy averaged 20.8 fantasy points in the nine games he played last season, and he’s finished inside the top 10 in points per game for three straight years. That’s a pretty good track record, even if the fantasy community seems determined to focus on the rough patches.

San Francisco changed up the receiver room, bringing in Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and Deebo Samuel for another run. I think the market's overreacting a bit. Purdy's been a highly efficient fantasy quarterback when he’s on the field, and this offense should give him plenty of chances to pile up points. He’s not the safest quarterback in this range, but he can absolutely finish several spots higher.

13. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Herbert took 54 sacks last season and still finished with 3,727 passing yards, 498 rushing yards, and 18.7 fantasy points per game. That’s a pretty impressive fantasy season considering how often he was running for his life.

Now Mike McDaniel's taking over the offense and wants Herbert getting the ball out faster, with more emphasis on yards after the catch. That should help keep him out of as many impossible third-and-long situations, though it doesn’t necessarily mean the Chargers are suddenly going to throw 40 times every week under Jim Harbaugh.

Tier 4 — Upside With Questions

This is the choose-your-own-risk tier. Every quarterback here can finish in the top 12. None gives me enough certainty to stop paying attention after the draft.

14. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Love averaged 16.1 points over 15 games and threw just six interceptions, but the Packers still don't give him the kind of passing volume that makes him easy to trust in fantasy. Green Bay's receiver health hasn't helped, either. We know Love has the arm talent and touchdown upside to jump a tier if everything clicks, but I'm not ready to assume the weekly floor is suddenly safe. I'd still pair him with another quarterback and let Love prove he can give us more than a few big weeks.

15. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Williams finished sixth in total quarterback scoring despite completing just 58.1% of his passes, and that's a pretty good reminder of how much upside he brings. The big plays and 383 rushing yards can carry him to some huge fantasy weeks, but the week-to-week operation was still pretty uneven. Year 2 with Ben Johnson should help clean that up, and I like taking a shot on the talent at this price. I just don't want to pay the top-eight price some leagues are already asking for.

16. Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings

Murray gets the most interesting fresh start of the group. Kevin O'Connell should be able to build an offense around what Murray does best, especially when plays break down, and Justin Jefferson's easily the best receiver he's ever had. The problem is that Murray played only five games last year and hasn't made it through a full season since 2020. He could absolutely win leagues from this spot, but he could also have managers looking for another starter by October. That's the kind of risk I'm accepting in this tier.

17. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Nix finished seventh in total quarterback points mostly because nobody threw more passes than he did. He averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt and then needed a second procedure on the ankle he fractured during the playoffs. Jaylen Waddle gives the offense more juice, but the efficiency and ankle concerns give me real pause. I like the upside, especially if the rushing stays involved, but I want to see that role survive before treating last year's finish as his floor.

18. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Jones averaged 18 points over 13 games before tearing his Achilles, and five rushing touchdowns showed us the fantasy value we've always known was in there. The big question is how much of his mobility comes back. This ranking assumes he gradually starts looking like himself again, which is a much easier bet in superflex. In a one-quarterback league, though, I want him as part of a pairing rather than counting on him as my only starter.

19. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mayfield averaged around 21 fantasy points per game through the first six weeks, then dropped to 14.2 the rest of the way. That kind of split pretty much sums him up: when he's rolling, he can look like a weekly starter, but the cold stretches tend to show up eventually. Mike Evans is gone, but Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka should give him enough to work with. I like Mayfield as a late-round option, but I'd want another quarterback on the roster because counting on him for 17 steady weeks feels like asking for trouble.

20. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud averaged just 15.5 fantasy points last year. Houston did try to fix some of the problems around him by rebuilding the offensive line, adding David Montgomery, and getting Tank Dell back in the mix. That should help, but Stroud still needs to either throw a lot more touchdowns or give us something with his legs, and he hasn't really done either so far. I still think he can become a very good NFL quarterback. I'm just not sure that automatically makes him a difference-maker for fantasy.

21. Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins

Willis finally gets a real shot after showing some encouraging flashes in limited action with Green Bay. The 123 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries are the part fantasy managers should care about most because he doesn't need to turn into an elite passer to be useful. The problem is that Miami's offensive line and receiving group make the whole situation tough to trust, and six career starts don't tell us much about what a full season would look like. I like Willis as a late-round swing, especially if I already have a safer quarterback, but that's what he is right now: a swing.

Tier 5 — QB2 Territory

These quarterbacks matter in superflex. In one-QB leagues, they're matchup plays, upside stashes, or waiver-wire names.

22. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

Darnold threw for 4,048 yards at 8.5 per attempt, which sounds great until you remember Seattle's offense didn't give him a ton of chances to turn that production into fantasy points. He averaged just 14.7 per game. Darnold can play well enough to help the Seahawks win without giving fantasy managers many difference-making weeks. That's useful in superflex, where a steady starting quarterback matters, but his lack of rushing makes him pretty replaceable in a one-quarterback league.

23. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

Dart's a lot lower for me than he is on most rankings, and the reason is pretty simple: I'm not ready to treat 487 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns as his new normal. That rushing production pushed him to 17.6 fantasy points per game as a rookie, so the upside is obvious. John Harbaugh's staff should give him a better structure, the offensive line should be improved, and Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely give him real weapons. Still, I can't ignore the concussion history or assume all those rushing scores are coming back. Dart could blow past this ranking, but at his current price, I'd rather let someone else make that bet.

24. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

Ward took 55 sacks and scored just 11.4 fantasy points per game as a rookie, so there are some pretty obvious concerns here. The good news is that Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson should give him more help, and Ward has enough mobility to create some useful fantasy weeks on his own. The problem is that Tennessee's offensive line still has a lot to prove. I like the long-term talent, but drafting Ward as my one-quarterback starter means betting on a major leap that I just don't see coming this season.

25. Geno Smith, New York Jets

Smith threw 17 interceptions and took 55 sacks in Las Vegas, so it’s fair to wonder how much of that follows him to New York. The good news is that the Jets should give him a better offensive line and a true No. 1 receiver in Garrett Wilson, which gives him a real chance to bounce back. I just don’t see a huge fantasy ceiling here from a 35-year-old quarterback who ran for only 109 yards last season. He’s a decent superflex stabilizer and someone you can use in the right matchup in a one-QB league, but I’m not going out of my way to draft him.

26. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Young had nine games last season with one or zero touchdown passes, and that’s tough to overcome when you’re not adding much with your legs either. He can make some impressive throws, but there are still too many weeks where the fantasy production just disappears. Carolina picked up his fifth-year option and clearly still believes there’s something to work with, but that doesn’t mean I need to make the same leap of faith. He’s a reasonable late-round stash in deeper leagues, but I’d rather stream the position than count on Young every week.

27. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers

Rodgers threw 24 touchdowns and only seven interceptions last season, but most of that production came without pushing the ball downfield. His 5.9 average air yards per attempt was the lowest among qualifying quarterbacks, and he’s already said this will be his final season. Pittsburgh should get competent quarterback play from him, but competent isn’t enough for fantasy when there’s no rushing upside and the big plays don't come. Rodgers can help in superflex if you’re desperate, but in a one-QB league, I’m not interested in chasing the name.

28. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

Shough was the QB6 over the final six weeks of last season, which is why plenty of analysts have him much higher. I need more than the hot finish. His full 11-game sample produced 14.9 points per appearance, and first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson is already dealing with a hamstring injury. The Saints should throw enough to create useful weeks, and Shough is a good superflex target because the job is his. In a normal league, the upside isn't unique enough to draft over better waiver options.

Tier 6 — Job Security Problems

All four are listed because they may start games. None should be drafted in a standard one-quarterback league. Even in superflex, the clock attached to the job matters as much as the projection.

29. Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas Raiders

Cousins officially won the Week 1 job, but let’s be honest: Las Vegas used the first overall pick on Fernando Mendoza for a reason, so this probably isn’t a long-term arrangement. Cousins averaged 10.9 fantasy points in 10 appearances for Atlanta and doesn’t give us anything with his legs. He’s fine as a temporary QB3 in superflex, but one rough stretch will have everyone asking when the rookie gets his shot.

30. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals

Brissett is first on Arizona's depth chart after throwing for 3,366 yards and 23 touchdowns in 14 games last season, so I’m not going to pretend he can’t produce useful numbers. The problem is that the Cardinals are rebuilding and drafted Carson Beck, which means every late-season loss will make the rookie more tempting. Brissett’s streamable while he has the job, but if you draft him in superflex, you’d better have a plan for when that job disappears.

31. Tua Tagovailoa, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta still hasn't named a starter between Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. as Week 1 approaches, and that uncertainty is enough to make me want no part of this situation in a one-QB league. Tua averaged 12.5 fantasy points and threw 15 interceptions in 14 games before Miami released him. Even if he opens the season, Penix is the younger quarterback Atlanta needs to evaluate, and the weapons don’t make up for the very real chance Tua loses the job.

32. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Watson somehow earned Cleveland's starting spot after multiple Achilles procedures, but he hasn’t played a real snap since October 2024. Shedeur Sanders is right behind him, and the Browns have every reason to move on quickly if Watson looks anything like he did during his previous Cleveland starts. There’s no one-QB case here. In superflex, he’s a last-ditch bet on temporary volume, and even then, I’d rather leave the draft with a quarterback whose value can survive one bad Sunday.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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