Division Leads, Backup QBs, and a Trip to Germany
Green Bay just scored 45 points on the road, watched Jordan Love pick apart New England’s secondary, and improved to 6–3.
Still last in the NFC North.
That’s the neighborhood these teams are living in right now. Chicago gets to take the week off at 7–2 while Detroit heads to Germany and Minnesota tries to find enough offense to keep its defense from filing a formal complaint.
Week 10 also gives us two 6–2 teams fighting over the AFC North, a Dallas team trying to make last week’s escape mean something, and Baltimore handing its season to another quarterback. There’s plenty worth watching. Here’s where I’d start.
Thursday: Washington’s Already Had Enough Chances
Commanders at Giants — 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
The first time these teams met, Washington blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead and somehow ended up letting it go to overtime. Then the Commanders let the time run out with the ball in field-goal range and it finished in a tie.
You’d think that’d be enough late-game chaos for one season. Washington wasn’t done.
The Commanders are now 2–5–1 after a 20–13 loss to the Rams, another game where they hung around early before an offense that couldn’t finish became the entire story. Jayden Daniels called Thursday a “must-win,” and at this point, that feels pretty fair.
The Giants, meanwhile, have a chance to turn Washington’s mistakes into some real separation. They’re 5–2–1 after beating Philadelphia, with a defense that made Joe Milton’s first start for the Eagles a long one. Arvell Reese led the way with three of New York’s seven sacks and finished with 12 tackles.
The big question on the other side is J.J. McCarthy’s hip. He returned Sunday, and John Harbaugh sounded optimistic Monday about his chances of playing Thursday. Cam Skattebo could be back, too.
For Washington, I’m watching the boring stuff: getting lined up, protecting Daniels, managing the clock, and actually getting a kick off when there’s a kick to make. The talent still gives you stretches that make you believe. The operation keeps making that belief feel foolish.
Munich: New England Needs More Than a Change of Scenery
Patriots vs. Lions — Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, FOX and FOX One
New England’s reward for getting shredded by one NFC North offense is a flight overseas to face another.
Detroit’s 6–2 after four straight wins, and the encouraging part is how little their offense had to do Sunday. Jared Goff threw for 170 yards without a touchdown, and the Lions still beat Miami 19–9 while holding the Dolphins to 182 total yards. Detroit’s last four opponents have scored 21, 17, 15, and nine points.
That recent improvement matters more than pretending the defense’s rough September never happened.
New England has the opposite problem. The Patriots are 5–4, and against Green Bay, their quarterback and secondary took turns making the afternoon harder than it needed to be. Drake Maye threw three first-half interceptions, while Love kept finding receivers downfield. The 45 points were the most a visiting team has scored at Gillette.
The individual matchup I want to see: Christian Gonzalez against Jameson Williams on the outside. Gonzalez just had the worst coverage day of his career. Detroit can test his recovery skills with Williams’ speed while Amon-Ra St. Brown pulls attention elsewhere. New England needs their best corner to make those decisions a little easier again.
Minnesota’s Defense Can’t Throw the Ball, Too
Vikings at Packers — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX and FOX One
Well, Carson Wentz didn’t settle that conversation.
Minnesota lost 23–6 to Buffalo on Monday, dropping to 6–2 after opening the season 6–0. Wentz completed just eight of 25 passes for 81 yards and two interceptions. Max Brosmer came in and went 6-of-7, which was enough to wake the building up but nowhere near enough to declare the quarterback problem solved. Minnesota finished with 178 yards, and Buffalo had the ball for 42 minutes and 32 seconds.
Brian Flores’ defense gave the Vikings a chance for most of the night. The offense kept handing it right back.
I’d still rather see a healthy Kyler Murray than another round of quarterback roulette. “Healthy” is still the part nobody can answer. His hamstring kept him out Monday, and seven Brosmer attempts shouldn’t make the decision for Kevin O’Connell.
Meanwhile, Jordan Love just went 23-of-29 for 372 yards and three touchdowns. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden combined for 17 catches on 18 targets for 335 yards. That’s one hell of a way to show up for a divisional rematch.
Green Bay does have one complication: Josh Jacobs needs finger surgery, and there’s no timetable for his return. A running game that’s already had their fair share of issues now has another one against a defense that doesn’t need any help making an offense predictable.
Flores against this version of Love is worth the afternoon. The bigger question is whether Minnesota can do anything offensively to help.
Dallas Can Move the Ball. Can They Stop Helping the Other Team?
49ers at Cowboys — Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX and FOX One
Dallas piled up 508 yards against Indianapolis and still needed a touchdown in the final minute to win 27–23.
Fourteen penalties for 153 yards and two lost fumbles will do that to you.
CeeDee Lamb caught 10 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown, and Dak threw for 335. The Cowboys have enough offense to make good teams sweat. They also keep finding ways to make struggling teams feel right at home.
San Francisco is 7–1 after beating Las Vegas 38–17, scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions and forcing five second-half turnovers. Nick Bosa’s back. DeForest Buckner’s back in the middle. There’s a lot more here than Brock Purdy making an undermanned receiving group work.
Though, yeah, that part’s impressive, too. Jordan Watkins’ 37-yard touchdown came with him fourth in Purdy’s progression, according to Kyle Shanahan. Purdy worked through the play and found him. That’s quarterbacking, no matter who’s missing at receiver.
The matchup isn’t great for Dallas. This is the league's most efficient offense against the 31st-ranked defense.
Sunday Night: The Best Game, and My Upset Pick
Steelers at Bengals — 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC and Peacock
Both teams are 6–2. Both have won four straight.
That’s plenty of reason to clear your Sunday night.
Cincinnati's coming home from Madrid after Joe Burrow threw three touchdowns and ran for another against Atlanta. Ja’Marr Chase had 155 receiving yards, including 142 before halftime. Tee Higgins finished with just 32 yards, but two touchdowns. His box score looked quiet in exactly the way a defense can’t afford to mistake for harmless.
The Steelers, meanwhile, got to spend the week resting.
Their September win ended with Derrick Harmon strip-sacking Burrow and Sebastian Joseph-Day recovering the fumble. Another win would give Pittsburgh the season sweep, a one-game lead, and a big advantage if these teams finish tied.
I like Pittsburgh as the week’s best upset possibility, with Cincinnati favored by 3.5. The reason is Jaylen Warren and the ground game. Pittsburgh ranks first in rushing efficiency, while Cincinnati’s run defense ranks 25th. There’s a real path for the Steelers to move the ball without asking Aaron Rodgers to go throw-for-throw with Burrow.
I also just feel like this Bengals offense is bound to come back to earth a little bit at some point, and the Steelers have the defense to make that happen.
Warren just ran for 143 yards against Cleveland before the bye. Feed him, finish drives, and make Cincinnati defend more than just the quarterback.
Burrow’s the reason that plan could still lose. But it’s a whole lot better than hoping he suddenly forgets how to play.
Monday: Baltimore’s Out of Comfortable Losses
Chargers at Ravens — 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN+
The Chargers are 0–8, so nobody’s exactly having a great time over there. But the Ravens are 4–5 and still have something that looks vaguely like a season to save. Losing at home to the league’s only winless team would make that rescue mission impossible.
Baltimore’s answer was to trade for Jacoby Brissett, who’s expected to start Monday with Lamar Jackson on injured reserve. Jesse Minter’s description of what he wants was refreshingly simple:
He’ll get the ball out on time.
After the last month, that’d count as progress.
The Ravens have scored less than 14 points in four straight games. Against Jacksonville, Derrick Henry took 10 direct snaps while Joe Fagnano played through an ankle injury. The staff’s been trying things. They just haven’t found anything that works.
Los Angeles should give Baltimore an opening, but the Ravens still have to take it. Houston just scored 44 points against the Chargers with Justin Herbert taking eight sacks. Protection, stalled drives, and an offense that disappears for long stretches are still bigger problems than one ugly defensive afternoon.
Brissett doesn’t need to become Lamar. He just needs to make enough routine plays to keep the offense on schedule.
All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.
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