Five weeks ago, the Commanders and Giants played 70 minutes and still couldn’t find a winner.

New York blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead, then fumbled away a chance to win in overtime. Washington got their own opportunity, drove into field-goal range, and let the clock run out without taking the kick. The result was a 27–27 tie that somehow left both teams feeling like they’d lost.

Now they get to do it all over again — this time on national television.

The Giants come into Thursday night sitting atop the NFC East at 5-2-1. Washington is 2-5-1, behind a Dallas team that’s also below .500. That’s how wide open this division has been, and how little the Commanders have done with the opportunity in front of them. A win keeps them in the race. A loss puts them four games behind New York with eight games left.

Kickoff is Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. The records point to the Giants, but this matchup has already shown it can get weird fast.

Washington Has to Identify the Rush Before They Can Beat It

Start at center, where Lucas Patrick’s concussion puts Nick Allegretti into the lineup. Allegretti’s been around the block, but most of his experience has come at guard. Now he’s helping sort out protection against a defense that’s more than happy to muck it up in the middle.

And Washington’s already without Laremy Tunsil, who’s still on injured reserve. There aren’t many places left to hide another protection problem.

Here’s the important distinction with New York: sending pressure and actually creating pressure aren’t the same thing. The Giants blitz on 39.3% of dropbacks, fifth-most in the league, but generate pressure on 33.4%, which ranks 21st. They can make a quarterback uncomfortable before the snap without necessarily getting someone into his lap afterward.

That matters against Jayden Daniels. He’s averaging 8.03 yards per attempt against blitzes this season. When he’s actually pressured, that drops to 4.29. Washington can beat the extra rusher if everyone recognizes where the ball needs to go. Asking Daniels to figure it out while trying to avoid somebody in his face is a different ask.

Quick completions, a well-timed screen, a back picking up the right defender — those are real answers. “Jayden will do something ridiculous” probably shouldn’t be the entire protection plan.

Third Down Starts Before Third Down

Washington’s converting just 31.1% of their third downs, worst in the NFL. They went 3-for-12 against the Rams on Sunday. Dan Quinn wants more chances to run the ball, but drives keep ending before the offense can really get going.

The fix has to start earlier. Four yards on first down gives David Blough options. A penalty followed by a stuffed run lets the Giants start moving people around and daring Washington to figure it out.

There’s also a reason to be skeptical of the Commanders’ respectable rushing numbers. Their running backs have produced just 10 explosive runs this season, tied for second-fewest. Daniels scrambling out of a busted pocket can boost the rushing average without making the actual running game any more reliable.

New York has their own version of the same problem. The Giants are 24th in offensive success rate. They’re winning games without consistently making the next snap any easier.

Getting Cam Skattebo back should help. He doesn’t have an injury designation after missing Philadelphia with a hamstring issue. Without him Sunday, the Giants managed 80 rushing yards on 31 attempts. That’s a whole lot of work for not much movement.

Taking Care of the Ball Includes Knowing When to Quit

Daniels has thrown seven touchdowns and no interceptions on 180 attempts, and that deserves credit. But Washington hasn’t exactly avoided costly quarterback mistakes. Myles Garrett forced a fumble Sunday, and nobody’s forgotten how that first Giants game ended.

Sometimes the best play is just throwing it away and living to fight another down. Daniels can turn a dead play into 20 yards, which makes that decision tougher. It doesn’t make it any less necessary.

J.J. McCarthy’s challenge is getting the ball out before the pressure takes away his options. He took five sacks in Philadelphia and briefly left with a hip injury. He’s been cleared for Thursday, but that doesn’t answer the bigger question: can the protection hold up?

His early numbers for the Giants are encouraging: 622 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Under pressure, though, he’s at minus-0.48 EPA per dropback across 31 plays. That’s still a small sample, but it gives Washington something worth testing.

The Commanders can’t get so focused on chasing McCarthy that they lose track of Malik Nabers or Isaiah Likely behind the rush. Likely already has six touchdown catches. If Washington gives McCarthy an easy answer, it defeats the whole point of making him uncomfortable.

Three Keys, the Swing Player, and the Pick

The three things I’m watching:

• Washington’s protection calls: Can Allegretti and Daniels spot the extra rusher and get the ball out? That’s going to matter a lot against this Giants front.

• Early-down production: Can either offense get to third-and-3 without needing a quarterback escape act to make it happen?

• Decisions under pressure: Who takes the easy completion, protects the ball, and avoids turning a bad snap into a full-blown disaster?

The player who can tilt it: Arvell Reese. The rookie’s coming off a monster game against Philadelphia with 12 tackles, three sacks, and a forced fumble. But his discipline could matter just as much Thursday. Daniels ran for 103 yards in the first meeting, and chasing him all over the field can come back to bite you.

Prediction: Giants 23, Commanders 17.

Daniels gives Washington a real chance. I just trust New York’s defense to end enough drives, especially against an offense that’s still having trouble stringing together the kind of ordinary, productive plays that keep a game under control.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.

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