6 Things to Watch on Election Night as Congress Hangs in the Balance
Voters head to the polls Tuesday with control of Congress up for grabs, and the first clues about how the night will go could come well before the biggest races are called.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate and a razor-thin majority in the House. With both chambers in play, NPR senior political editor Domenico Montanaro laid out six key things to watch as results roll in, from early bellwether districts to turnout among young, Black and Latino voters.
Early Bellwethers in Indiana, Kentucky and Florida
Parts of Indiana and Kentucky close their polls at 6 p.m. ET, making them the first places to watch. Indiana's 5th District and Kentucky's 6th are Republican-held seats that have become more competitive. If they are close or leaning Democratic, it could signal weak GOP turnout and a bigger Democratic night, NPR reported.
In Florida, most results start coming in around 7 p.m. ET. Watch Florida's 22nd District, a Democratic-held seat redrawn to favor Republicans, and the heavily Latino 27th District, which Trump won by double digits. The 27th could offer an early read on how Latino voters are leaning.
Another early clue will be how independents break. Independents are a key swing group, though they tend to vote at lower rates in midterms. Since Trump entered politics, Republicans have generally won when they captured at least 46% of independents and lost when they fell short, according to NPR's analysis.
Michigan and the Battle for the Senate
The Michigan Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed could help decide which party controls the Senate.
If Republicans flip the seat, Democrats would need to pick up five Republican-held seats instead of four to win a majority. El-Sayed's chances depend heavily on Black voters in Wayne County, home to Detroit. In the Trump era, Democrats have typically needed about 68% of the vote there to win Michigan, unless they run strongly in the suburbs, as Sen. Elissa Slotkin did in 2024.
Young Voters and the Texas Senate Race
Young voters are crucial for Democrats but often skip midterms. Since 1992, about 43% of registered voters ages 18 to 29 have cast ballots in presidential years, compared with just 21% in midterms. Over the past 20 years, Democratic margins of more than 20 points with young voters have generally lined up with good nights for the party.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico has held a narrow lead in polling averages over Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race, and an October survey showed the race tied. Still, polls have underestimated Republicans in Texas before. No Democrat has won statewide there since 1994, and Trump carried the state by 14 points in 2024.
NPR said two things will matter most: whether enough voters who back Republican Gov. Greg Abbott skip Paxton, and how Talarico performs with Latino voters, especially in South Texas counties like Cameron, Hidalgo and Webb.
Enthusiasm on Both Sides
Democrats made up just 31% of voters in 2024 exit polls, a low point for the party. A recent NPR poll found high enthusiasm among Democrats and showed 53% of likely voters strongly disapprove of Trump's job performance, but NPR noted the party will need a much bigger share of the electorate to have a strong night. NPR also pointed to Michigan's 7th District, where progressive Democrats are running in competitive territory, after progressive challengers toppled two incumbents in the state's primaries this summer.
Republicans, meanwhile, are counting on Trump to energize their base in the final stretch. He recently swapped in-person events for a series of tele-rallies across nearly 20 states, and has warned supporters that if Democrats take control, "this country will go to hell," Fox News reported.
The Senate and House Map
Because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties, Republicans need 50 Senate seats to keep control, while Democrats need 51. Fox News' forecast rates Senate control a toss-up, with Republicans defending competitive seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina and Texas, and Democrats defending Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
In the House, Fox News' Power Rankings point toward Democrats retaking the chamber, and recent polls have fueled talk of a blue wave, though a strong night for Republicans could keep the outcome close.
Beyond Congress, 36 states are electing governors, and voters will decide 145 statewide ballot measures on issues including abortion, voter ID and taxes.
Polls close in waves throughout the evening, from 6 p.m. ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky to 1 a.m. ET in parts of Alaska. Close races may not be called until days later, so patience could be key.
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