After a full Sunday of football, Monday night gives us one last game to argue about. And this one should be worth staying up for.

The Broncos and Chiefs have owned the AFC West for almost two decades, combining to win every division title since 2010. Kansas City held the crown for nine straight years before Denver finally took it back last season, winning 14 games and sweeping the Chiefs on the way to the AFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, Kansas City missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014 and ended the year on a six-game losing streak.

Now, both teams are starting over in pretty important ways, with Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes both coming back from season-ending injuries.

Denver Has To Make Kansas City Defend The Whole Field

Denver won 14 games last season, but the offense still had a habit of making things harder than they needed to be. The Broncos finished 10th in total offense and 14th in scoring. Bo Nix’s yards per attempt dipped from 6.7 as a rookie to 6.4 in Year 2. He still threw for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns, but there were too many drives where it felt like Denver was waiting around for Nix to make something happen late.

That’s where the Jaylen Waddle trade could make a difference right away. Denver gave up a lot — a first, a third, and a fourth — but Waddle gives the offense a receiver who can hurt defenses in just about every way. He can take the top off, win underneath, and make people miss after the catch. Put him next to Courtland Sutton, with Evan Engram working the middle and J.K. Dobbins back after averaging 5.0 yards per carry before his injury, and Nix should have a lot more room to work.

Kansas City’s defense still only allowed 19.3 points per game last season, so this isn’t going to be some easy walk through the park. Chris Jones is still wrecking things in the middle, George Karlaftis can get after the quarterback, and Steve Spagnuolo is going to test every protection rule Denver worked on this offseason.

Bo Nix Can’t Spend Monday Solving Spagnuolo

The biggest opportunity is in Kansas City’s secondary. The Chiefs traded Trent McDuffie and then lost Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook this offseason, which means they’re replacing more than 2,400 defensive snaps. L’Jarius Sneed is back, and sixth-overall pick Mansoor Delane could become a big piece, but this is still a new group trying to figure things out together.

That’s why Denver should be willing to come out swinging a little. New offensive coordinator Davis Webb doesn’t need to open his first regular-season game as a play-caller by calling three straight deep shots, but the Broncos also can’t spend the first quarter running into the line and throwing five-yard passes while Arrowhead gets louder. Move Waddle around and make those new defensive backs communicate.

Nix is 6-1 in prime-time starts, but this will be his first meaningful game since he broke his ankle in Denver’s divisional-round win over Buffalo. Give him a couple of easy completions, let him settle in and then take a shot at that secondary. That sounds a lot better than asking him to solve a third-and-long pressure package on the opening drive.

Denver’s Pass Rush Has To Control Mahomes’ Return

Patrick Mahomes is back nine months after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee. He practiced fully to start the week and says he doesn’t plan to put any limits on how he plays, but this is still his first real game action since December. The Chiefs also kept him out of the entire preseason, so there’s at least a little mystery around what he’ll look like Monday night.

Denver can’t sit around waiting for Mahomes to look rusty or move a little less than usual. Vance Joseph said the Broncos expect “Patrick to be Patrick,” and that’s really the only way to approach him. The second a defense starts assuming Mahomes is limited, he usually finds a way to make them pay.

The more obvious place for Denver to attack is right in front of him. Starting left tackle Josh Simmons missed Thursday’s practice with a back injury, which could put undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson in charge of protecting Mahomes’ blind side. That’s a brutal first NFL assignment, especially against a Denver defense that set a franchise record with 68 sacks last season.

Kansas City Finally Has A Pressure Valve

The Chiefs know Denver’s going to test that offensive line, and Kenneth Walker III gives them a way to take some pressure off Mahomes. Walker ran for 1,027 yards and won Super Bowl MVP last season before signing with Kansas City, and he’s a much more explosive option than anything the Chiefs had in a rushing attack that ranked 25th in the league last year.

Denver allowed just 91.1 rushing yards per game in 2025, so this won’t be an easy matchup. The Broncos were also excellent on first down, allowing a league-low 4.0 yards per play. If Walker can keep Kansas City out of obvious passing situations, Andy Reid can lean on quick throws, screens, and extra protection while Mahomes gets comfortable.

If Denver starts living in the backfield, though, that pass rush could make this a long night for a quarterback playing his first game since tearing up his knee.

And that’s the part that makes this game tricky. I don’t expect Kansas City to look exactly like the old Chiefs right away. There’s going to be some rust, especially with Mahomes coming back from a major injury and the offense breaking in a few new pieces. But Mahomes is still Mahomes. At some point, this team is going to start looking like themselves again, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that happens earlier rather than later.

Kansas City is favored by 2.5 points, and I’m taking the Chiefs. Denver has the healthier roster, and the Broncos have enough on defense to make this uncomfortable for a while. But I trust Mahomes to make a few ridiculous plays, especially at Arrowhead, and I think Kansas City finds just enough offense late to get back on track.

The Chiefs might not look like the old Chiefs yet. They don’t have to. They just have to look like them for a few important drives.

All stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

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