C.J. Stroud probably hoped the worst part of last season was behind him. Eight months later, it showed up on his very first drive of 2026.

The last time Stroud played a meaningful game, he threw four interceptions in the Texans’ playoff loss to the New England Patriots. The week before that, he’d fumbled five times, lost two of them, and thrown another interception in a 30-6 win over Pittsburgh.

So when Stroud’s first possession Sunday ended with a fumble, it was hard not to wonder whether the same old problem had followed him into the new season. And when his final possession ended with another one, the story practically wrote itself.

That’s the frustrating part, though: Stroud played well for most of the game. Houston looked looked like a team that wasn't afraid to go toe-to-toe with another AFC contender, and there was plenty to like about the offense in between those two turnovers. But in the end, the mistakes were the moments everyone remembered.

Rousseau Was Waiting At Both Ends

Houston couldn’t have asked for a much better start. Buffalo got the opening kickoff, drove into Texans territory, and ended up coming away empty after Kamari Lassiter stopped Josh Allen on fourth down.

Then Houston got the ball and immediately made things harder on themselves. A false start put the Texans behind schedule. Two runs after that picked up just three yards. And then Stroud was facing third-and-12. That was all the invitation Greg Rousseau needed.

Rousseau got to Stroud, knocked the ball loose, and watched Ed Oliver recover it at Houston’s 32. The Texans defense held Buffalo to a field goal, but the first possession of a season built around Stroud proving he could put last year behind him lasted three snaps.

His final possession took a much longer road to the same ending.

Houston was behind 36-31 with 1:36 left after Allen drove Buffalo 96 yards for the go-ahead score. Stroud came out firing, hitting Dalton Schultz for 18 yards and then eight more. A defensive holding penalty kept another third down alive, and Stroud followed it with completions to Nico Collins for 12 yards and Jaylin Noel for 18.

With 25 seconds left, the Texans had first-and-goal from the Buffalo 9. They were close enough that the conversation had shifted from whether Houston would score to how much time Allen would have left.

And then the drive fell apart.

Deone Walker dropped Stroud for a nine-yard loss. Stroud missed Collins on second down, and on third-and-goal from the 18, Rousseau came flying around the edge again. The ball came loose as Stroud went down and Terrel Bernard recovered it to seal the win for Buffalo.

Everything Between The Fumbles Looked Better

Calling this a bad Stroud game would be easy. It’d also be wrong.

He completed 26 of 38 passes for 274 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. His 106.7 passer rating was better than anything he put up in last year’s playoffs, and Houston finished with 381 yards while holding the ball for more than 36 minutes.

More importantly, Stroud didn’t let that first fumble ruin the rest of his day. On Houston’s next possession, he converted a third-and-8 with a 25-yard throw to Nico Collins, and David Montgomery finished the 76-yard drive with his first touchdown as a Texan.

When Buffalo pushed their lead to 24-14 late in the second quarter, Stroud answered in 63 seconds. He hit Jaylin Noel for 35 yards, then found Collins for a 12-yard touchdown with 26 seconds left in the half. That was the kind of clean, aggressive response Houston needed to see after an offseason spent wondering whether Stroud could get back to looking like himself.

The Texans leaned on him again during a 13-play drive that carried into the fourth quarter. Stroud found Kayshon Boutte for 21 yards and capped the drive with a seven-yard touchdown pass to Montgomery.

Even Houston’s next scoring drive needed Stroud to come through. Facing third-and-10 from his own 35, he hit Xavier Hutchinson for 20 yards to keep the drive alive. That possession eventually ended with Ka’imi Fairbairn drilling a 58-yard field goal to put Houston ahead.

This was a much better Houston offense than the one that disappeared for long stretches last season. Montgomery scored three touchdowns in his debut. The Texans ran for 124 yards, Collins caught seven passes for 75 yards, and Stroud completed passes to 10 different players.

They scored 31 points against one of the AFC’s best teams. Houston didn’t score 30 points in any of their five regular-season losses last year, and the offense managed 16 or fewer in both playoff games.

Stroud wasn’t the only reason Houston lost Sunday, either. The defense gave up 409 yards and four touchdowns to Josh Allen. Dalton Kincaid and DJ Moore combined for 230 receiving yards. Kamari Lassiter dropped a potential game-clinching interception one play before Allen found Joshua Palmer for the winning touchdown.

Houston also got the ball back with a 31-30 lead and 5:39 left, then went three-and-out. The Texans gained one yard and gave Allen another chance with plenty of time on the clock.

There’s enough blame to go around here.

But quarterbacks in Stroud's position still have to close games like this. That’s the part Houston’s going to keep coming back to.

January Never Really Left

Stroud’s ball security had actually gotten better during the regular season before everything fell apart in the playoffs. He went from eight fumbles as a rookie to six in 2024 and just two in 2025. Neither of those two were lost.

Then came Pittsburgh.

Stroud fumbled five times in the wild-card round, setting a record for the most fumbles by a quarterback in a playoff win. Two came as he was trying to throw, and he also tossed an interception in the red zone. Somehow, Houston was good enough everywhere else to win by 24 points anyway.

Afterward, Stroud said he and center Jake Andrews would be “extra attentive” to the issue. A week later, the snaps weren’t the problem. The turnovers were. Stroud threw all four of his interceptions in the first half against New England, including one Marcus Jones took back for a touchdown.

I feel like I let people down. I’m not happy with that. It hurts. I’m not used to it.

That’s the baggage Stroud brought into Sunday. He isn’t a quarterback who spends every week throwing the ball around recklessly. But the mistakes keep showing up in the games Houston needs him to finish most.

And now, they’re part of a bigger conversation. Stroud and the Texans didn’t agree on an extension before the season, and Houston plans to table those talks until the offseason. His fifth-year option guarantees him $25.9 million in 2027, but the long-term questions aren’t going anywhere.

One opener shouldn’t decide what Stroud's worth, especially when most of Sunday showed he can still run an offense good enough to compete with a team like Buffalo. He was accurate, decisive, and composed enough to keep answering the Bills for most of the afternoon. Houston didn’t look like a team being held back by their quarterback.

But that's not always enough.

All stats courtesy of Fantasy Points Data.