U.S. Shifts Focus on Nuclear Capabilities of Russia, China, and North Korea

According to a new report from the New York Times, the U.S. is making plans to address the increasing concerns about a joint nuclear strike levied by China, Russia, and North Korea. Here is a look at what the plan entails and why the U.S. is so concerned.

U.S. Redirects its Nuclear Deterrence Strategy

The New York Times is releasing information about a decision by U.S. President Joe Biden last March to change the country's nuclear defense plan. The move now puts China as the focus of the U.S. deterrence strategy as the Communist nation continues to build its nuclear arsenal. The new strategy also aims to combat the growing threat of coordination between leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang.

The decision by the U.S. to redirect its deterrence strategy indicates that the Pentagon is becoming more concerned about the plans of Chinese President Xi Jinping to increase his stash of nuclear weapons. The Pentagon is also reportedly concerned about the partnership between China, Russia, and North Korea.

What is most concerning to global relations experts is that Russia and China continue to grow closer strategically. For instance, just last month near Alaska, Chinese and Russian long-range bombers conducted live-fire exercises as they patrolled the South China Sea. The discovery raised the alarm bells in Washington, D.C. as it provided proof that the two adversaries were working together.

President Xi and President Putin agreed to a “no-limits” partnership with Russia in 2022. Since that time, the two countries have expanded their military and diplomatic ties through these joint military exercises.

Also this year, Russia renewed its multi defense treaty with North Korea, signaling that the countries will work together more in the future. Global relations experts warn that Putin is lining the pocketbooks of North Korea's defense budget, helping the country to build up its nuclear weapons arsenal.

Inside the Numbers

It is not new news that China is broadening its nuclear weapons stock. A report out of the Pentagon last October detailed that China had more than doubled its nuclear capabilities in a period of just three years. This significant expansion of China's nuclear weapons is expected to continue.

The latest Pentagon’s China Military Power Report details that China would increase its nuclear warheads from 500 to 1,000 by the end of 2030. This number is expected to hit 1,500 by 2035. Should China reach this threshold, it would control as much nuclear capabilities as the U.S. and Russia.

On Tuesday, a spokesperson for the White House confirmed that Biden did indeed approve the new strategy earlier this year. However, the decision to make the change was not in response to any specific threat.

Experts are cautioning that the U.S. defense officials should not underestimate President Xi's plans to bring in more nuclear power. The ongoing deterioration of international relations between the U.S. and China amplifies the security threat posed by this nuclear ramp-up.

The New York Times confirmed that the Biden administration did not officially announce its new strategy that goes by the name of Nuclear Employment Guidance.

The classified information that guides U.S. nuclear defense strategy is updated once every four years. The document is printed on paper with no electronic version in an effort to protect its security. Only a few people are privy to the specific contents.

While the document is classified, U.S. officials began hinting at the increased emphasis on monitoring China's nuclear capabilities more recently. A more informative and unclassified document has not yet been given to Congress.

In addition to focusing on the concern of China, the U.S. is putting a renewed emphasis on deterring Russia and North Korea in the arms race. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not been shy about threatening to use his nation's nuclear weapons. The U.S. has also cautioned its allies around the world that Russia could potentially try to send a nuclear weapon into space.

This rhetoric has been ratcheted up a notch since Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine in 2022. Biden joined forces with political leaders in Britain and Germany to convince Chinese and Indian authorities to publicly proclaim that there is no place for the use of nuclear capabilities in Ukraine, temporarily diffusing Russia's claims.

Lastly, officials in the U.S. are worried because the New Start nuclear arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia expires in early 2026. There is no new agreement set to replace New Start when it expires.

China Responds to U.S. Shifts

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson was asked about the U.S. change in nuclear policy during a press briefing on Wednesday. The spokesperson proceeded to accuse the U.S. of “peddling the China nuclear threat narrative.”

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning also accused the U.S. of trying to find a new strategic advantage in the arms race. She then went on to defend Beijing's strategy of maintaining its supply of nuclear weapons simply for minimum national security. Mao pointed out that this arsenal is not at the same level that the U.S. employs for protection. Instead, she said that China is simply playing catch-up in the arms race.

Leaders in China continue to ask the U.S. to reduce the scope of its nuclear arsenal, specifically leaving its alliances in Europe and Asia. The Chinese also defend its position, saying that they have always employed a no-first-use policy in regards to nuclear weapons.

Russian officials have not yet responded to the news of the change in the direction of U.S. strategy regarding nuclear capabilities of other countries around the world.

How Will the U.S. Respond to These Growing Concerns?

As far as the U.S. stockpile of nuclear weapons, the Biden administration has hinted that it might be willing to expand the country's own arsenal. This would be a direct contrast to the past years of intentionally reducing the nuclear weapons stockpile.

For the past several years, Russia has been the primary concern for the U.S. as it relates to nuclear capabilities. The shift of the focus toward China is indicative of the worries concerning President Xi's ability to build up his country's arsenal much faster than expected.

During his time in office, former President Donald Trump assured Americans that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would surrender all of his country's nuclear weapons following the pair's in-person meetings. This prediction did not come to fruition. Instead, Kim has increased his stockpile over the last several years.

Although North Korea carefully guards its defense secrets, experts believe that its growing arsenal is now rivaling the number of nuclear weapons under the control of Israel and Pakistan. At the very least, it would be easy for North Korea to coordinate a nuclear response with China and Russia for maximum effect.

All of these reasons point to why the Pentagon is worried about the collaboration between the adversaries even though the Cold War is long in the rearview mirror.

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